Football · South Africa Diski Challenge · 14/11, 09:00

Prediction: Amazulu Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

Team pages: Amazulu Reserves · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Amazulu Reserves1.07

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves1.98

1X2

19% 23% 58%

Amazulu Reserves Draw Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Amazulu Reserves 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLLWL

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Amazulu Reserves 1–5 Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves (6 last)

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves5-0Amazulu Reserves
Amazulu Reserves0-3Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves2-1Amazulu Reserves
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves1-0Amazulu Reserves
Amazulu Reserves0-3Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Amazulu Reserves2-1Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Amazulu Reserves 1499 · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 1584

	Amazulu Reserves	Draw	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves (rating 1499 vs 1584).
H2H favours Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Amazulu Reserves	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	1.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/29/57%	78/11/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.9	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.10

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:42 +23’	4.50	4.10	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Amazulu Reserves 1–0–5 Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 South Africa Diski Challenge	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	5-0	Amazulu Reserves
12/10/25 South Africa Diski Challenge	Amazulu Reserves	0-3 HT 0-2	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
16/03/25 South Africa Diski Challenge	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	2-1 HT 2-0	Amazulu Reserves
06/10/24 South Africa Diski Challenge	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	1-0 HT 1-0	Amazulu Reserves
25/02/24 South Africa Diski Challenge	Amazulu Reserves	0-3 HT 0-2	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
12/11/22 South Africa Diski Challenge	Amazulu Reserves	2-1 HT 1-0	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

Standings · South Africa Diski Challenge

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves	7	7	0	0	22	6	21
2	Golden Arrows Reserves	7	5	0	2	19	8	15
3	Orlando Pirates Reserves	7	4	1	2	16	8	13
4	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	6	4	1	1	14	9	13
5	Sekhukhune United Reserves	7	4	1	2	12	9	13
6	TS Galaxy Reserves	7	3	2	2	6	6	11
7	Amazulu Reserves	7	3	1	3	9	7	10
8	Siwelele FC Reserves	7	3	1	3	5	5	10
9	Stellenbosch FC Reserves	7	3	1	3	11	14	10
10	Richards Bay FC Reserves	7	3	0	4	6	8	9
11	Polokwane City Reserves	7	2	1	4	8	10	7
12	Durban City Reserves	7	2	1	4	5	12	7
13	Milford FC Reserves	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
14	Chippa United Reserves	7	1	2	4	8	22	5
15	Kruger United Reserves	6	1	1	4	5	9	4
16	Marumo Gallants Reserves	7	1	1	5	10	19	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Amazulu Reserves	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Kaizer Chiefs Reserves	1-3 L	2-4 L
Polokwane City Reserves	1-2 L	1-1 D
TS Galaxy Reserves	0-0 D	2-1 W
Richards Bay FC Reserves	2-0 W	2-0 W
Durban City Reserves	3-1 W	4-2 W
Chippa United Reserves	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Amazulu Reserves

WWLWWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-2	1-3	2	1	L
01/11	Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	3-1	–	–	W
24/10	Siwelele FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
17/10	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
10/10	TS Galaxy Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	2-0	1	1	W
26/09	Golden Arrows Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	2-0	0	6	W
09/05	TS Galaxy Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
02/05	Durban City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	3-1	3	3	W
26/04	Chippa United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	2-1	3	3	W

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

WWWLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sekhukhune United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
31/10	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/10	Chippa United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/10	TS Galaxy Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
04/10	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-4	9	4	L
26/09	Durban City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	4-2	3	2	W
09/05	Orlando Pirates Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-2	0-2	0	1	L
03/05	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
26/04	Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
21/04	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	3-1	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Amazulu Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves win (58%). Probabilities: Amazulu Reserves 19%, draw 23%, Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 58%.

How many goals are expected in Amazulu Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Amazulu Reserves 1.07 · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 1.98), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Amazulu Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.