Football · England Northern League Division One · 10/10, 16:00
Prediction: Pontefract Collieries vs Grimsby Borough
Team pages: Pontefract Collieries · Grimsby Borough
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Pontefract Collieries2.29
Grimsby Borough1.15
1X2
Pontefract Collieries
Draw
Grimsby Borough
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Pontefract Collieries
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Grimsby Borough
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pontefract Collieries
2–2
Grimsby Borough
(4 last)
- Pontefract Collieries3-0Grimsby Borough
- Grimsby Borough0-2Pontefract Collieries
- Pontefract Collieries1-3Grimsby Borough
- Grimsby Borough2-0Pontefract Collieries
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pontefract Collieries 1535 · Grimsby Borough 1447
| Pontefract Collieries | Draw | Grimsby Borough | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontefract Collieries (rating 1535 vs 1447).
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pontefract Collieries | Grimsby Borough | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.1 | 2.1 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pontefract Collieries 2–0–2 Grimsby Borough
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 England Northern League Division One | Pontefract Collieries | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Grimsby Borough |
| 08/10/25 England Northern League Division One | Grimsby Borough | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Pontefract Collieries |
| 02/11/24 England Northern League Division One | Pontefract Collieries | 1-3 HT 1-3 | Grimsby Borough |
| 22/02/23 England Northern League Division One | Grimsby Borough | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Pontefract Collieries |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pontefract Collieries | Grimsby Borough |
|---|---|---|
| Ashington | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Bridlington Town | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pontefract Collieries
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Ashington England Northern League Division One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 15/09 | Blyth Spartans England Northern League Division One |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Liversedge England Northern League Division One |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Dunston UTS England Northern League Division One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | Emley AFC England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Lincoln Utd England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/03 | North Ferriby England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 28/02 | Blyth Town England Northern League Division One |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 21/02 | Bishop Auckland England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 14/02 | Bridlington Town England Northern League Division One |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
Grimsby Borough
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Ashington England Northern League Division One |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/09 | Hallam England Northern League Division One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Heaton Stannington England Northern League Division One |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Consett England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/09 | Stocksbridge PS England Northern League Division One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | Bradford P A England Northern League Division One |
0-3 | 1-7 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 26/08 | Bridlington Town England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 19/08 | Garforth Town England Northern League Division One |
3-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Newton Aycliffe England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 01/04 | Bridlington Town England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pontefract Collieries vs Grimsby Borough?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pontefract Collieries win (62%). Probabilities: Pontefract Collieries 62%, draw 21%, Grimsby Borough 17%.
How many goals are expected in Pontefract Collieries vs Grimsby Borough?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Pontefract Collieries 2.29 · Grimsby Borough 1.15), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Pontefract Collieries vs Grimsby Borough?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.