Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 11/10, 20:00

Prediction: Argentino Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano

Team pages: Argentino Merlo · Sportivo Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Argentino Merlo0.88

Sportivo Italiano1.18

1X2

27% 32% 42%

Argentino Merlo Draw Sportivo Italiano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Merlo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDDLDLLWLL

Sportivo Italiano 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLDWW

Head-to-head

Argentino Merlo 2–3–1 Sportivo Italiano (6 last)

Sportivo Italiano0-2Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo1-1Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano0-0Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo5-1Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano1-1Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo1-2Sportivo Italiano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Merlo 1474 · Sportivo Italiano 1533

	Argentino Merlo	Draw	Sportivo Italiano
Our model	26%	32%	41%
Market	27%	31%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Italiano (rating 1474 vs 1533).
H2H favours Argentino Merlo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Merlo	Sportivo Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.1	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X2.88

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
X	2.90 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88
2	2.00 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:49 +7’	3.50	2.90	2.00
12:11 +2’	3.30▼	2.88▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

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Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Merlo 2–3–1 Sportivo Italiano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-2 HT 0-1	Argentino Merlo
13/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	1-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Italiano
23/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
29/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	5-1 HT 2-0	Sportivo Italiano
11/05/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-1 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
07/08/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	1-2 HT 1-0	Sportivo Italiano

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	39	23	8	8	63	30	77
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	39	20	12	7	53	26	72
3	Talleres Remedios	39	19	11	9	41	24	68
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	18	11	9	45	28	65
5	Villa Dalmine	39	17	14	8	39	24	65
6	Atletico Camioneros	39	17	13	9	44	30	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	17	10	12	42	38	61
7	Real Pilar	38	17	10	11	42	38	61
9	Club Comunicaciones	39	14	14	11	39	34	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	13	13	13	47	51	52
11	San Martin De Burzaco	39	12	14	13	40	44	50
12	CS Dock Sud	38	11	14	13	40	42	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	11	14	14	37	43	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	10	15	14	37	52	45
15	Argentino Merlo	38	11	11	16	33	39	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	9	17	13	32	39	44
17	Deportivo Liniers	39	10	14	15	32	40	44
18	CSD Flandria	39	11	9	19	35	48	42
19	Defensores Unidos	39	9	14	16	33	40	41
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	38	8	15	15	24	37	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	5	20	13	21	35	35
22	CA Ituzaingo	39	1	13	25	27	64	16

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Merlo

WDDLDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/09	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
20/09	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
06/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
30/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
26/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
22/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	7	W

Sportivo Italiano

WWLLWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	0	4	W
19/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
12/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
05/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
29/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	0	6	W
25/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
21/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	4	6	W
09/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	4-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo Italiano win (42%). Probabilities: Argentino Merlo 27%, draw 32%, Sportivo Italiano 42%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Argentino Merlo 0.88 · Sportivo Italiano 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.