Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 17/10, 20:00

Prediction: Sportivo Italiano vs Arsenal de Sarandi

Team pages: Sportivo Italiano · Arsenal de Sarandi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Sportivo Italiano1.11

Arsenal de Sarandi1.1

1X2

34% 31% 34%

Sportivo Italiano Draw Arsenal de Sarandi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Italiano 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDWWW

Arsenal de Sarandi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Sportivo Italiano 1–0 Arsenal de Sarandi (1 last)

Arsenal de Sarandi1-3Sportivo Italiano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Italiano 1554 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1530

	Sportivo Italiano	Draw	Arsenal de Sarandi
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	35%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Italiano	Arsenal de Sarandi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.1	3.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X2.88

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.60 → 2.63▲	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:48 +22’	2.60	2.88	2.60
02:54 +23’	2.60	2.88	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Italiano 1–0–0 Arsenal de Sarandi

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Arsenal de Sarandi	1-3 HT 0-2	Sportivo Italiano

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	39	23	8	8	63	30	77
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	39	20	12	7	53	26	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	19	11	9	47	29	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	19	11	9	41	24	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	17	14	8	39	24	65
6	Atletico Camioneros	39	17	13	9	44	30	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	17	10	12	42	38	61
8	Real Pilar	39	17	10	12	42	39	61
9	Club Comunicaciones	39	14	14	11	39	34	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	13	13	13	47	51	52
11	San Martin De Burzaco	39	12	14	13	40	44	50
12	CS Dock Sud	39	11	14	14	40	43	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	11	14	14	37	43	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	10	15	14	37	52	45
15	Argentino Merlo	39	11	11	17	34	41	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	9	17	13	32	39	44
17	Deportivo Liniers	39	10	14	15	32	40	44
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	39	9	15	15	25	37	42
19	CSD Flandria	39	11	9	19	35	48	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	9	14	16	33	40	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	6	20	13	22	35	38
22	CA Ituzaingo	39	1	13	25	27	64	16

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Italiano	Arsenal de Sarandi
Argentino Merlo	2-1 W	0-0 D
Talleres Remedios	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Italiano (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Italiano

WLLWWLDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
04/10	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	0	4	W
19/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
12/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
05/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
29/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	0	6	W
25/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
21/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	4	6	W

Arsenal de Sarandi

LDWWWWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	3-1	9	5	W
03/10	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
26/09	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	6	7	W
19/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
29/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	2	8	W
25/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
22/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Italiano vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Italiano win (34%). Probabilities: Sportivo Italiano 34%, draw 31%, Arsenal de Sarandi 34%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Italiano vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Sportivo Italiano 1.11 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Italiano vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.