Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 10/10, 21:00

Prediction: Universitario De Vinto vs Real Oruro

Team pages: Universitario De Vinto · Real Oruro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Universitario De Vinto2.23

Real Oruro1.43

1X2

54% 23% 23%

Universitario De Vinto Draw Real Oruro

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Universitario De Vinto 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Real Oruro 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Universitario De Vinto 0–2–4 Real Oruro (6 last)

Real Oruro4-1Universitario De Vinto
Universitario De Vinto1-1Real Oruro
Real Oruro4-3Universitario De Vinto
Real Oruro3-0Universitario De Vinto
Universitario De Vinto1-2Real Oruro
Universitario De Vinto2-2Real Oruro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universitario De Vinto 1442 · Real Oruro 1418

	Universitario De Vinto	Draw	Real Oruro
Our model	55%	22%	23%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Oruro: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universitario De Vinto	Real Oruro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.1 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.6	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:52 +26’	1.73	4.00	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario De Vinto 0–2–4 Real Oruro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Real Oruro	4-1 HT 1-1	Universitario De Vinto
10/03/26 America Friendlies	Universitario De Vinto	1-1 HT 1-1	Real Oruro
07/03/26 America Friendlies	Real Oruro	4-3 HT 0-2	Universitario De Vinto
29/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Real Oruro	3-0 HT 2-0	Universitario De Vinto
03/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Universitario De Vinto	1-2 HT 0-0	Real Oruro
22/09/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Universitario De Vinto	2-2 HT 1-0	Real Oruro

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	20	14	3	3	54	22	45
2	Always Ready	20	13	6	1	47	13	45
3	The Strongest	20	12	6	2	39	22	42
4	Real Potosi	20	8	8	4	27	14	32
5	Oriente Petrolero	20	9	3	8	36	27	30
6	Club Aurora	20	7	9	4	31	27	30
7	Guabira	20	8	5	7	32	39	29
8	Nacional Potosi	20	8	3	9	30	28	27
9	Blooming	20	6	9	5	30	22	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	7	4	9	27	35	25
11	Real Oruro	20	6	3	11	32	50	21
12	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	20	6	2	12	31	45	20
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	20	6	2	12	21	40	20
14	Universitario De Vinto	20	5	3	12	26	39	18
15	Real Tomayapo	20	4	4	12	15	39	16
16	GV San Jose	20	2	8	10	21	37	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universitario De Vinto	Real Oruro
Blooming	1-1 D	1-1 D
Independiente Petrolero	3-1 W	0-3 L
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	0-2 L	1-4 L
The Strongest	3-4 L	0-5 L
Real Tomayapo	0-1 L	2-1 W
Oriente Petrolero	0-5 L	2-3 L
Real Potosi	0-2 L	0-2 L
Guabira	1-1 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Universitario De Vinto (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universitario De Vinto

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
13/09	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
04/09	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
26/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
22/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	2-2	3-4	5	5	L
14/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
10/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
06/08	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
31/07	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	13	2	D
27/07	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	4	4	L

Real Oruro

LLLWLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
12/09	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
04/09	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
27/08	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/08	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
15/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	2-3	2-3	6	4	L
08/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
04/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
01/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-3	3	6	L
25/07	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-3	1-4	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universitario De Vinto vs Real Oruro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario De Vinto win (54%). Probabilities: Universitario De Vinto 54%, draw 23%, Real Oruro 23%.

How many goals are expected in Universitario De Vinto vs Real Oruro?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Universitario De Vinto 2.23 · Real Oruro 1.43), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universitario De Vinto vs Real Oruro?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.