Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 11/10, 01:30

Prediction: Oriente Petrolero vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Team pages: Oriente Petrolero · Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

Oriente Petrolero2.56

Academia de Balompie Boliviano1.29

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Oriente Petrolero Draw Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Oriente Petrolero 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDLLW

Academia de Balompie Boliviano 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDLWLL

Head-to-head

Oriente Petrolero 0–1–2 Academia de Balompie Boliviano (3 last)

Academia de Balompie Boliviano3-1Oriente Petrolero
Academia de Balompie Boliviano5-2Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero3-3Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oriente Petrolero 1522 · Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1431

	Oriente Petrolero	Draw	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Our model	64%	19%	17%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oriente Petrolero (rating 1522 vs 1431).
H2H favours Academia de Balompie Boliviano: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oriente Petrolero	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.2	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:05 +20’	1.45	4.50	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oriente Petrolero 0–1–2 Academia de Balompie Boliviano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	3-1 HT 1-1	Oriente Petrolero
11/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	5-2 HT 3-0	Oriente Petrolero
14/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Oriente Petrolero	3-3 HT 2-0	Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	20	14	3	3	54	22	45
2	Always Ready	20	13	6	1	47	13	45
3	The Strongest	20	12	6	2	39	22	42
4	Real Potosi	20	8	8	4	27	14	32
5	Oriente Petrolero	20	9	3	8	36	27	30
6	Club Aurora	20	7	9	4	31	27	30
7	Guabira	20	8	5	7	32	39	29
8	Nacional Potosi	20	8	3	9	30	28	27
9	Blooming	20	6	9	5	30	22	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	7	4	9	27	35	25
11	Real Oruro	20	6	3	11	32	50	21
12	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	20	6	2	12	31	45	20
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	20	6	2	12	21	40	20
14	Universitario De Vinto	20	5	3	12	26	39	18
15	Real Tomayapo	20	4	4	12	15	39	16
16	GV San Jose	20	2	8	10	21	37	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oriente Petrolero	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Real Tomayapo	2-0 W	1-1 D
GV San Jose	3-3 D	2-2 D
Real Oruro	3-2 W	4-1 W
Universitario De Vinto	5-0 W	2-0 W
Bolivar	1-2 L	1-4 L
Nacional Potosi	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Oriente Petrolero (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oriente Petrolero

WWLWWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
12/09	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	1	9	L
06/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	10	6	L
25/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-3	4	9	D
22/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
15/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	3-2	3-2	7	4	W
10/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	5-0	6	3	W
06/08	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
03/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/07	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-1	3	5	W

Academia de Balompie Boliviano

LDWLLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
13/09	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-6	3	4	L
04/09	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
28/08	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-4	6	3	L
22/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
16/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
07/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
04/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-1	5	4	W
01/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
25/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-3	4	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oriente Petrolero vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oriente Petrolero win (64%). Probabilities: Oriente Petrolero 64%, draw 20%, Academia de Balompie Boliviano 16%.

How many goals are expected in Oriente Petrolero vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano?

The model expects 3.85 goals (Oriente Petrolero 2.56 · Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Oriente Petrolero vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.