Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 11/10, 23:15

Prediction: Club Aurora vs Nacional Potosi

Team pages: Club Aurora · Nacional Potosi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Club Aurora1.74

Nacional Potosi1.12

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Club Aurora Draw Nacional Potosi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Aurora 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLLDDWWL

Nacional Potosi 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Club Aurora 2–1–3 Nacional Potosi (6 last)

Nacional Potosi2-0Club Aurora
Club Aurora1-2Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi3-1Club Aurora
Club Aurora1-1Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi1-3Club Aurora
Club Aurora4-1Nacional Potosi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Aurora 1536 · Nacional Potosi 1549

	Club Aurora	Draw	Nacional Potosi
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nacional Potosi: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Aurora	Nacional Potosi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.8	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.70

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.83▲	Bet365 1.83
X	3.90 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.78 ★
2	4.50 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:01 +6’	1.65	3.90	4.50
20:32 +10’	1.65	3.90	4.75▲
10:18 +2’	1.75▲	3.75▼	4.20▼
11:21 +7’	1.83▲	3.70▼	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:44 +18’	1.65	3.80	4.24
00:17 +28’	1.58▼	4.03▲	4.43▲
09:55 +25’	1.74▲	3.73▼	3.81▼
11:15 +12’	1.74	3.73	3.79▼
11:54 +59’	1.71▼	3.78▲	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Aurora 2–1–3 Nacional Potosi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	2-0 HT 0-0	Club Aurora
27/09/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Club Aurora	1-2 HT 0-1	Nacional Potosi
17/05/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	3-1 HT 2-0	Club Aurora
18/12/24 Bolivia Clausura	Club Aurora	1-1 HT 1-0	Nacional Potosi
14/09/24 Bolivia Clausura	Nacional Potosi	1-3 HT 0-1	Club Aurora
13/03/24 Bolivia Apertura	Club Aurora	4-1 HT 3-0	Nacional Potosi

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	20	14	3	3	54	22	45
2	Always Ready	20	13	6	1	47	13	45
3	The Strongest	20	12	6	2	39	22	42
4	Oriente Petrolero	21	10	3	8	37	27	33
5	Real Potosi	20	8	8	4	27	14	32
6	Club Aurora	20	7	9	4	31	27	30
7	Guabira	20	8	5	7	32	39	29
8	Nacional Potosi	20	8	3	9	30	28	27
9	Blooming	20	6	9	5	30	22	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	7	4	9	27	35	25
11	Real Oruro	21	7	3	11	35	51	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	6	3	12	21	40	21
13	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	21	6	2	13	31	46	20
14	Universitario De Vinto	21	5	3	13	27	42	18
15	Real Tomayapo	21	4	5	12	15	39	17
16	GV San Jose	20	2	8	10	21	37	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Aurora	Nacional Potosi
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	2-0 W	1-2 L
GV San Jose	3-0 W	3-0 W
Always Ready	2-2 D	0-4 L
Blooming	0-3 L	2-1 W
Independiente Petrolero	1-1 D	3-0 W
The Strongest	1-1 D	2-3 L
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Aurora

WDDLLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	1-3	9	5	L
12/09	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	3-0	3-0	5	4	W
27/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
22/08	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/08	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-3	9	9	L
09/08	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-4	6	6	L
05/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	12	6	D
31/07	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
25/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	3-2	3	10	W

Nacional Potosi

WLLLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
12/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
07/09	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
26/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
23/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
16/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
08/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
03/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
27/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Aurora vs Nacional Potosi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Aurora win (51%). Probabilities: Club Aurora 51%, draw 26%, Nacional Potosi 23%.

How many goals are expected in Club Aurora vs Nacional Potosi?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Club Aurora 1.74 · Nacional Potosi 1.12), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Aurora vs Nacional Potosi?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.