Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Portadown vs Glentoran

Team pages: Portadown · Glentoran

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Portadown0.97

Glentoran1.97

1X2

18% 22% 60%

Portadown Draw Glentoran

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Portadown 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDLLW

Glentoran 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDLWWW

Head-to-head

Portadown 1–5 Glentoran (6 last)

Glentoran2-1Portadown
Glentoran2-1Portadown
Portadown0-1Glentoran
Portadown0-2Glentoran
Glentoran0-2Portadown
Portadown1-2Glentoran

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portadown 1417 · Glentoran 1535

	Portadown	Draw	Glentoran
Our model	17%	23%	60%
Market	18%	21%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Glentoran (rating 1417 vs 1535).
H2H favours Glentoran: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portadown	Glentoran
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.40

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.40 → 4.40	Bet365 4.40
2	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.57 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:10 +2’	5.00	4.40	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +358’	4.87	4.32	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portadown 1–0–5 Glentoran

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/12/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Glentoran	2-1 HT 1-1	Portadown
31/10/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Glentoran	2-1 HT 1-0	Portadown
09/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	0-1 HT 0-1	Glentoran
30/12/24 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	0-2 HT 0-1	Glentoran
16/11/24 Northern Ireland Premier	Glentoran	0-2 HT 0-0	Portadown
17/08/24 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	1-2 HT 0-1	Glentoran

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	9	7	1	1	19	8	22
2	Linfield	9	7	1	1	12	6	22
3	Larne FC	6	5	1	0	12	3	16
4	Glentoran	10	5	1	4	15	10	16
5	Crusaders	10	5	0	5	15	18	15
6	Carrick Rangers	10	4	1	5	15	15	13
7	Dungannon Swifts	9	4	1	4	9	10	13
8	Ballymena Utd	9	3	3	3	13	11	12
9	Cliftonville	10	4	0	6	12	12	12
10	Limavady United	9	3	0	6	8	14	9
11	Bangor FC	9	1	2	6	8	19	5
12	Portadown	10	1	1	8	8	20	4

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portadown	Glentoran
Limavady United	3-1 W	2-0 W
Ballymena Utd	0-2 L	2-0 W
Bangor FC	1-3 L	1-1 D
Linfield	1-1 D	1-2 L
Larne FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Cliftonville	1-3 L	2-1 W
Coleraine	0-3 L	1-2 L
Crusaders	2-3 L	1-2 L
Dungannon Swifts	0-1 L	2-0 W
Carrick Rangers	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 8 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Glentoran (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portadown

LLLLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	3-1	5	7	W
26/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
19/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-3	1	5	L
15/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
12/09	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
05/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
28/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
22/08	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	2-3	3	3	L
15/08	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
08/08	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	3	7	L

Glentoran

WLWLLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
26/09	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
19/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	2-1	12	5	W
15/09	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
12/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	12	1	D
04/09	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
29/08	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
21/08	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
15/08	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	1	7	L
08/08	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portadown vs Glentoran?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Glentoran win (60%). Probabilities: Portadown 18%, draw 22%, Glentoran 60%.

How many goals are expected in Portadown vs Glentoran?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Portadown 0.97 · Glentoran 1.97), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Portadown vs Glentoran?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.