Football · Indonesia Championship · 03/10, 14:00

Prediction: PSMS Medan vs Persikad 1999 FC

Team pages: PSMS Medan · Persikad 1999 FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

PSMS Medan2.03

Persikad 1999 FC0.84

1X2

64% 22% 14%

PSMS Medan Draw Persikad 1999 FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

PSMS Medan 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDLWDDDWW

Persikad 1999 FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLDWLWWW

Head-to-head

PSMS Medan 0–2–1 Persikad 1999 FC (3 last)

Persikad 1999 FC2-2PSMS Medan
Persikad 1999 FC1-0PSMS Medan
PSMS Medan1-1Persikad 1999 FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSMS Medan 1493 · Persikad 1999 FC 1534

	PSMS Medan	Draw	Persikad 1999 FC
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Persikad 1999 FC (rating 1493 vs 1534).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSMS Medan	Persikad 1999 FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.7	2.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 1.1	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.20

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.38▼	Bet365 1.38
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	5.50 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +4’	1.42	4.33	5.50
02:18 +5’	1.38▼	4.20▼	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PSMS Medan 0–2–1 Persikad 1999 FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Indonesia Championship	Persikad 1999 FC	2-2 HT 1-0	PSMS Medan
03/01/26 Indonesia Championship	Persikad 1999 FC	1-0 HT 0-0	PSMS Medan
11/10/25 Indonesia Championship	PSMS Medan	1-1 HT 0-0	Persikad 1999 FC

Standings · Indonesia Championship · Championship 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Persikad 1999 FC	3	3	0	0	6	3	9
2	PSMS Medan	3	2	1	0	9	2	7
3	Semen Padang	3	2	1	0	4	1	6
4	PSPS Pekanbaru	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
5	PSGC Ciamis	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
6	PSIS Semarang	2	1	1	0	3	2	3
7	Sumsel United	4	1	1	2	5	7	3
8	Bekasi City	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
9	Persiraja Aceh	4	0	0	4	3	7	-1
10	Persiku Kudus	2	0	1	1	1	7	-1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PSMS Medan	Persikad 1999 FC
Bekasi City	1-0 W	2-1 W
Sumsel United	2-2 D	1-1 D
Persiraja Aceh	1-1 D	2-1 W
Garudayaksa	0-1 L	1-3 L
PSPS Pekanbaru	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: PSMS Medan (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSMS Medan

LDDLWDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Bekasi City Indonesia Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/09	Persiku Kudus Indonesia Championship	5-0	6-0	0	0	W
13/09	Sumsel United Indonesia Championship	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
02/05	Persiraja Aceh Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Isenmulang Kalteng FC Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	Sriwijaya Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/04	Garudayaksa Indonesia Championship	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
05/04	Persikad 1999 FC Indonesia Championship	0-1	2-2	9	8	D
28/03	PSPS Pekanbaru Indonesia Championship	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
28/02	Bekasi City Indonesia Championship	0-0	1-2	4	8	L

Persikad 1999 FC

LWDLDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Persiraja Aceh Indonesia Championship	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
18/09	Bekasi City Indonesia Championship	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
12/09	PSGC Ciamis Indonesia Championship	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
02/05	Garudayaksa Indonesia Championship	1-2	1-3	5	5	L
25/04	Bekasi City Indonesia Championship	3-1	3-2	6	6	W
18/04	Sumsel United Indonesia Championship	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	PSPS Pekanbaru Indonesia Championship	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
05/04	PSMS Medan Indonesia Championship	1-0	2-2	3	8	D
27/03	Persekat Kabupaten Tegal Indonesia Championship	2-1	4-1	6	6	W
28/02	Persiraja Aceh Indonesia Championship	1-1	2-3	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSMS Medan vs Persikad 1999 FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PSMS Medan win (64%). Probabilities: PSMS Medan 64%, draw 22%, Persikad 1999 FC 14%.

How many goals are expected in PSMS Medan vs Persikad 1999 FC?

The model expects 2.88 goals (PSMS Medan 2.03 · Persikad 1999 FC 0.84), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in PSMS Medan vs Persikad 1999 FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.