Football · Indonesia Championship · 11/10, 10:30

Prediction: PSPS Pekanbaru vs PSMS Medan

Team pages: PSPS Pekanbaru · PSMS Medan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

PSPS Pekanbaru1.53

PSMS Medan1.35

1X2

41% 27% 33%

PSPS Pekanbaru Draw PSMS Medan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

PSPS Pekanbaru 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLLWWW

PSMS Medan 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDLWDDDWWW

Head-to-head

PSPS Pekanbaru 1–5–0 PSMS Medan (6 last)

PSMS Medan1-1PSPS Pekanbaru
PSMS Medan1-1PSPS Pekanbaru
PSPS Pekanbaru3-3PSMS Medan
PSPS Pekanbaru1-0PSMS Medan
PSMS Medan1-1PSPS Pekanbaru
PSMS Medan0-0PSPS Pekanbaru

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSPS Pekanbaru 1563 · PSMS Medan 1527

	PSPS Pekanbaru	Draw	PSMS Medan
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSPS Pekanbaru	PSMS Medan
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.1	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:18 +8’	2.20	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PSPS Pekanbaru 1–5–0 PSMS Medan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Indonesia Championship	PSMS Medan	1-1 HT 0-1	PSPS Pekanbaru
19/11/25 Indonesia Championship	PSMS Medan	1-1 HT 0-0	PSPS Pekanbaru
20/09/25 Indonesia Championship	PSPS Pekanbaru	3-3 HT 1-1	PSMS Medan
04/01/25 Indonesia Championship	PSPS Pekanbaru	1-0 HT 0-0	PSMS Medan
19/10/24 Indonesia Championship	PSMS Medan	1-1 HT 0-1	PSPS Pekanbaru
09/12/23 Indonesia Championship	PSMS Medan	0-0 HT 0-0	PSPS Pekanbaru

Standings · Indonesia Championship · Championship 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSMS Medan	4	3	1	0	13	2	10
2	PSIS Semarang	5	3	1	1	8	5	9
3	Persikad 1999 FC	4	3	0	1	6	7	9
4	PSPS Pekanbaru	4	3	0	1	6	4	9
5	Semen Padang	4	2	1	1	4	2	6
6	PSGC Ciamis	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
7	Sumsel United	4	1	1	2	5	7	3
8	Persiraja Aceh	5	1	0	4	6	8	2
9	Bekasi City	4	0	1	3	2	5	1
10	Persiku Kudus	4	0	1	3	2	12	-1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PSPS Pekanbaru	PSMS Medan
Sumsel United	2-1 W	2-2 D
Persiraja Aceh	2-1 W	1-1 D
Bekasi City	2-3 L	1-0 W
Persikad 1999 FC	3-1 W	4-0 W
Sriwijaya	6-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: PSPS Pekanbaru (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSPS Pekanbaru

DWWWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Semen Padang Indonesia Championship	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/09	Sumsel United Indonesia Championship	0-1	2-1	13	6	W
19/09	Persiraja Aceh Indonesia Championship	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
11/09	PSIS Semarang Indonesia Championship	1-1	1-2	1	1	L
02/05	Bekasi City Indonesia Championship	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
26/04	Sumsel United Indonesia Championship	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	Persekat Kabupaten Tegal Indonesia Championship	2-1	4-2	4	4	W
12/04	Persikad 1999 FC Indonesia Championship	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
03/04	Sriwijaya Indonesia Championship	4-0	6-0	6	1	W
28/03	PSMS Medan Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	1	3	D

PSMS Medan

DDLWDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Persikad 1999 FC Indonesia Championship	0-0	4-0	2	0	W
27/09	Bekasi City Indonesia Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/09	Persiku Kudus Indonesia Championship	5-0	6-0	0	0	W
13/09	Sumsel United Indonesia Championship	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
02/05	Persiraja Aceh Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Isenmulang Kalteng FC Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	Sriwijaya Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/04	Garudayaksa Indonesia Championship	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
05/04	Persikad 1999 FC Indonesia Championship	0-1	2-2	9	8	D
28/03	PSPS Pekanbaru Indonesia Championship	0-1	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSPS Pekanbaru vs PSMS Medan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PSPS Pekanbaru win (41%). Probabilities: PSPS Pekanbaru 41%, draw 27%, PSMS Medan 33%.

How many goals are expected in PSPS Pekanbaru vs PSMS Medan?

The model expects 2.88 goals (PSPS Pekanbaru 1.53 · PSMS Medan 1.35), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in PSPS Pekanbaru vs PSMS Medan?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.