Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 04/10, 20:00

Prediction: Puerto Nuevo vs JJ Urquiza

Team pages: Puerto Nuevo · JJ Urquiza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.71Total

Puerto Nuevo0.9

JJ Urquiza0.81

1X2

35% 34% 30%

Puerto Nuevo Draw JJ Urquiza

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Puerto Nuevo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWDDLWLLLL

JJ Urquiza 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLWDDL

Head-to-head

Puerto Nuevo 2–4 JJ Urquiza (6 last)

JJ Urquiza0-1Puerto Nuevo
JJ Urquiza2-0Puerto Nuevo
Puerto Nuevo1-2JJ Urquiza
JJ Urquiza0-3Puerto Nuevo
Puerto Nuevo0-1JJ Urquiza
Puerto Nuevo0-2JJ Urquiza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Puerto Nuevo 1469 · JJ Urquiza 1461

	Puerto Nuevo	Draw	JJ Urquiza
Our model	34%	37%	29%
Market	36%	33%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 1.71 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JJ Urquiza: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Puerto Nuevo	JJ Urquiza
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.3	2.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.5	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X2.75

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.90

Under 1.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +30’	2.50	2.75	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Puerto Nuevo 2–0–4 JJ Urquiza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	JJ Urquiza	0-1 HT 0-0	Puerto Nuevo
22/06/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	JJ Urquiza	2-0 HT 1-0	Puerto Nuevo
08/03/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Puerto Nuevo	1-2 HT 0-1	JJ Urquiza
25/08/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	JJ Urquiza	0-3 HT 0-2	Puerto Nuevo
27/03/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Puerto Nuevo	0-1 HT 0-0	JJ Urquiza
20/08/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Puerto Nuevo	0-2 HT 0-2	JJ Urquiza

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Berazategui	30	12	12	6	35	21	48
2	CA Lugano	30	11	13	6	33	25	46
3	Sacachispas	30	13	7	10	32	26	46
4	Centro Espanol	30	11	11	8	37	27	44
5	Victoriano Arenas	31	10	14	7	24	19	44
6	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	30	11	11	8	31	29	44
7	Club Mercedes	30	11	10	9	29	23	43
8	Juventud Unida San Miguel	30	11	9	10	35	29	42
9	Puerto Nuevo	30	9	11	10	27	31	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	9	9	13	25	31	36
11	Deportivo Paraguayo	30	7	10	13	22	38	31
12	Club Leandro N. Alem	30	8	7	15	29	51	31
13	JJ Urquiza	30	5	14	11	15	25	29
14	Argentino de Rosario	30	3	15	12	27	39	24

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Puerto Nuevo	JJ Urquiza
Club Leandro N. Alem	3-0 W	1-2 L
Defensores de Cambaceres	0-2 L	0-0 D
Juventud Unida San Miguel	1-1 D	2-0 W
Sacachispas	1-0 W	1-2 L
Argentino de Rosario	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JJ Urquiza (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Puerto Nuevo

DWDDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
20/09	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	2-3	3	8	L
12/09	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
06/09	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
30/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	3-0	0	4	W
23/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
14/08	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-2	2	3	D
09/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
31/07	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	10	W
23/07	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

JJ Urquiza

DDLLWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
18/09	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
13/09	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
06/09	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
31/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	1-2	2	8	L
22/08	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-1	6	1	W
16/08	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
08/08	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
31/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
25/07	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Puerto Nuevo vs JJ Urquiza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Puerto Nuevo win (35%). Probabilities: Puerto Nuevo 35%, draw 34%, JJ Urquiza 30%.

How many goals are expected in Puerto Nuevo vs JJ Urquiza?

The model expects 1.71 goals (Puerto Nuevo 0.9 · JJ Urquiza 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Puerto Nuevo vs JJ Urquiza?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.