Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 12/10, 20:00

Prediction: Club Mercedes vs CA Lugano

Team pages: Club Mercedes · CA Lugano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

Club Mercedes0.99

CA Lugano0.97

1X2

34% 32% 33%

Club Mercedes Draw CA Lugano

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Mercedes 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLDWWD

CA Lugano 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWDDDL

Head-to-head

Club Mercedes 2–3–1 CA Lugano (6 last)

CA Lugano1-0Club Mercedes
CA Lugano0-1Club Mercedes
Club Mercedes1-1CA Lugano
Club Mercedes2-2CA Lugano
CA Lugano0-0Club Mercedes
Club Mercedes2-1CA Lugano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Mercedes 1479 · CA Lugano 1510

	Club Mercedes	Draw	CA Lugano
Our model	34%	34%	33%
Market	35%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Club Mercedes: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Mercedes	CA Lugano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.55

X2.88

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55
X	2.75 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:29 +30’	2.63	2.75	2.63
11:57 +8’	2.55▼	2.88▲	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 1.75

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Mercedes 2–3–1 CA Lugano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	1-0 HT 1-0	Club Mercedes
17/08/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-1 HT 0-1	Club Mercedes
02/05/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	1-1 HT 1-0	CA Lugano
26/10/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	2-2 HT 1-0	CA Lugano
27/05/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-0 HT 0-0	Club Mercedes
09/10/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	2-1 HT 2-0	CA Lugano

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Berazategui	31	12	12	7	37	24	48
2	Centro Espanol	31	12	11	8	42	28	47
3	Sacachispas	31	13	8	10	32	26	47
4	CA Lugano	31	11	13	7	35	28	46
5	Juventud Unida San Miguel	31	12	9	10	38	31	45
6	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	31	11	12	8	31	29	45
7	Club Mercedes	31	11	11	9	30	24	44
8	Victoriano Arenas	31	10	14	7	24	19	44
9	Puerto Nuevo	31	9	11	11	28	35	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	9	9	13	25	31	36
11	JJ Urquiza	31	6	14	11	19	26	32
12	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	7	11	13	23	39	32
13	Club Leandro N. Alem	31	8	7	16	30	56	31
14	Argentino de Rosario	31	4	15	12	30	41	27

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Mercedes	CA Lugano
Deportivo Paraguayo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Puerto Nuevo	1-0 W	1-0 W
Club Leandro N. Alem	1-0 W	1-0 W
Defensores de Cambaceres	0-3 L	2-1 W
Argentino de Rosario	0-2 L	2-3 L
Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Mercedes

DLLWLLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
26/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
20/09	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/09	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
05/09	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
30/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
22/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
18/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
08/08	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
31/07	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	9	D

CA Lugano

WDLWDWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-3	3	8	L
26/09	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
20/09	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
12/09	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/07	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	4	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Mercedes vs CA Lugano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Mercedes win (34%). Probabilities: Club Mercedes 34%, draw 32%, CA Lugano 33%.

How many goals are expected in Club Mercedes vs CA Lugano?

The model expects 1.96 goals (Club Mercedes 0.99 · CA Lugano 0.97), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Mercedes vs CA Lugano?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.