Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 12/10, 20:00

Prediction: CA Atlas vs El Porvenir

Team pages: CA Atlas · El Porvenir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.89Total

CA Atlas0.99

El Porvenir0.9

1X2

36% 32% 31%

CA Atlas Draw El Porvenir

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Atlas 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDLLDL

El Porvenir 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLWLLD

Head-to-head

CA Atlas 4–2–0 El Porvenir (6 last)

El Porvenir0-1CA Atlas
El Porvenir2-2CA Atlas
CA Atlas2-1El Porvenir
CA Atlas0-0El Porvenir
El Porvenir0-1CA Atlas
El Porvenir2-3CA Atlas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Atlas 1486 · El Porvenir 1472

	CA Atlas	Draw	El Porvenir
Our model	35%	35%	30%
Market	37%	31%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 1.89 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CA Atlas: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Atlas	El Porvenir
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.9	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.7	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.40

X2.90

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:44 +10’	2.40	2.90	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Atlas 4–2–0 El Porvenir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	El Porvenir	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Atlas
20/11/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	El Porvenir	2-2 HT 1-1	CA Atlas
18/06/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Atlas	2-1 HT 1-0	El Porvenir
17/10/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Atlas	0-0 HT 0-0	El Porvenir
12/06/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	El Porvenir	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Atlas
29/10/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	El Porvenir	2-3 HT 1-1	CA Atlas

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	31	18	7	6	45	22	61
2	Canuelas FC	31	16	10	5	39	22	58
3	Central Cordoba de Rosario	31	13	10	8	32	22	49
4	Deportivo Espanol	31	11	16	4	25	16	49
5	Leones de Rosario	31	12	12	7	29	24	48
6	General Lamadrid	31	9	13	9	23	27	40
7	Sportivo Barracas	31	11	6	14	32	32	39
8	Central Ballester	31	10	8	13	29	30	38
9	CA Atlas	31	9	10	12	23	27	37
10	El Porvenir	31	7	16	8	26	31	37
11	Yupanqui	31	8	11	12	33	35	35
12	Fenix	31	8	10	13	23	30	34
13	CA Claypole	31	8	9	14	25	39	33
14	Deportivo Muniz	31	6	11	14	22	36	29

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Atlas	El Porvenir
Fenix	0-1 L	0-0 D
Yupanqui	2-0 W	0-3 L
Canuelas FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CA Atlas (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Atlas

LWWWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
27/09	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
19/09	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
12/09	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	11	7	L
06/09	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
31/08	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
22/08	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	4	9	W
16/08	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
09/08	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
04/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	8	9	L

El Porvenir

DLWDWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
29/09	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-3	1	2	L
21/09	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
12/09	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
05/09	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
29/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	4-2	4	6	W
23/08	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/08	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
08/08	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
04/08	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Atlas vs El Porvenir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Atlas win (36%). Probabilities: CA Atlas 36%, draw 32%, El Porvenir 31%.

How many goals are expected in CA Atlas vs El Porvenir?

The model expects 1.89 goals (CA Atlas 0.99 · El Porvenir 0.9), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Atlas vs El Porvenir?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.