Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 12/10, 20:00

Prediction: UAI Urquiza vs Real Pilar

Team pages: UAI Urquiza · Real Pilar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

UAI Urquiza0.93

Real Pilar1.12

1X2

29% 32% 39%

UAI Urquiza Draw Real Pilar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

UAI Urquiza 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLLWLLDW

Real Pilar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWDLWWLW

Head-to-head

UAI Urquiza 0–1–2 Real Pilar (3 last)

Real Pilar2-1UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza0-1Real Pilar
Real Pilar2-2UAI Urquiza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UAI Urquiza 1458 · Real Pilar 1541

	UAI Urquiza	Draw	Real Pilar
Our model	29%	33%	39%
Market	30%	31%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Pilar (rating 1458 vs 1541).
H2H favours Real Pilar: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UAI Urquiza	Real Pilar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.2	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X2.90

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:40 +11’	3.00	2.90	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UAI Urquiza 0–1–2 Real Pilar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Real Pilar	2-1 HT 1-0	UAI Urquiza
08/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Pilar
20/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Real Pilar	2-2 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	39	23	8	8	63	30	77
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	39	20	12	7	53	26	72
3	Talleres Remedios	39	19	11	9	41	24	68
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	18	11	9	45	28	65
5	Villa Dalmine	39	17	14	8	39	24	65
6	Atletico Camioneros	39	17	13	9	44	30	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	17	10	12	42	38	61
7	Real Pilar	38	17	10	11	42	38	61
9	Club Comunicaciones	39	14	14	11	39	34	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	13	13	13	47	51	52
11	San Martin De Burzaco	39	12	14	13	40	44	50
12	CS Dock Sud	38	11	14	13	40	42	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	11	14	14	37	43	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	10	15	14	37	52	45
15	Argentino Merlo	38	11	11	16	33	39	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	9	17	13	32	39	44
17	Deportivo Liniers	39	10	14	15	32	40	44
18	CSD Flandria	39	11	9	19	35	48	42
19	Defensores Unidos	39	9	14	16	33	40	41
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	38	8	15	15	24	37	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	5	20	13	21	35	35
22	CA Ituzaingo	39	1	13	25	27	64	16

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UAI Urquiza	Real Pilar
Villa Dalmine	0-0 D	2-0 W
Excursionistas	1-2 L	0-3 L
Arsenal de Sarandi	0-2 L	2-1 W
Argentino Merlo	2-0 W	1-0 W
Talleres Remedios	0-1 L	0-2 L
Deportivo Laferrere	0-2 L	1-1 D
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-1 D	2-0 W
Deportivo Armenio	0-1 L	1-0 W
CSD Flandria	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Pilar (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UAI Urquiza

DLDLLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-2	7	4	W
27/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
19/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
12/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
06/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
25/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	11	5	L
22/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
16/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
08/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

Real Pilar

DDWWDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
26/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
19/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
12/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
05/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
29/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
25/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
22/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
15/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
08/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UAI Urquiza vs Real Pilar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Pilar win (39%). Probabilities: UAI Urquiza 29%, draw 32%, Real Pilar 39%.

How many goals are expected in UAI Urquiza vs Real Pilar?

The model expects 2.05 goals (UAI Urquiza 0.93 · Real Pilar 1.12), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UAI Urquiza vs Real Pilar?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.