Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 10/10, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo

Team pages: Deportivo Laferrere · Deportivo Merlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Deportivo Laferrere1.51

Deportivo Merlo0.74

1X2

55% 28% 17%

Deportivo Laferrere Draw Deportivo Merlo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Laferrere 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDDLLW

Deportivo Merlo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Laferrere 1–4–1 Deportivo Merlo (6 last)

Deportivo Merlo2-1Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere2-2Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo1-1Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Merlo0-0Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere1-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo1-1Deportivo Laferrere

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Laferrere 1474 · Deportivo Merlo 1459

	Deportivo Laferrere	Draw	Deportivo Merlo
Our model	54%	28%	17%
Market	55%	27%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Laferrere	Deportivo Merlo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	0.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.30

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 14:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.61▼	Pinn 1.63
X	3.10 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.33 ★
2	3.60 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.04

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:55 +11’	1.91	3.10	3.60
23:21 +9’	1.85▼	3.10	3.80▲
01:49 +6’	1.73▼	3.20▲	4.33▲
10:54 +8’	1.91▲	3.10▼	3.60▼
14:29 +4’	1.61▼	3.30▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +196’	1.75	3.13	4.64
10:53 +9’	1.90▲	2.96▼	4.02▼
12:10 +143’	1.63▼	3.33▲	5.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Laferrere 1–4–1 Deportivo Merlo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	2-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Laferrere
12/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	2-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Merlo
23/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Laferrere
06/10/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Laferrere
19/05/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo
13/01/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Laferrere

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	38	22	8	8	59	30	74
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	38	19	12	7	50	25	69
3	Talleres Remedios	38	19	10	9	40	23	67
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	18	11	9	45	28	65
5	Villa Dalmine	38	17	13	8	38	23	64
6	Atletico Camioneros	38	17	12	9	43	29	63
7	Real Pilar	38	17	10	11	42	38	61
8	Deportivo Armenio	38	17	9	12	42	38	60
9	Club Comunicaciones	38	14	13	11	39	34	55
10	Deportivo Laferrere	38	13	12	13	46	50	51
11	San Martin De Burzaco	38	12	14	12	39	41	50
12	CS Dock Sud	38	11	14	13	40	42	47
13	Villa San Carlos	38	11	14	13	37	39	47
14	Argentino Merlo	38	11	11	16	33	39	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	38	10	14	14	36	51	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	38	9	16	13	30	37	43
17	Deportivo Liniers	38	10	13	15	31	39	43
18	Defensores Unidos	38	9	14	15	33	39	41
19	CA Brown de Adrogue	38	8	15	15	24	37	39
20	CSD Flandria	38	10	9	19	34	48	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	5	20	13	21	35	35
22	CA Ituzaingo	38	1	12	25	25	62	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Laferrere	Deportivo Merlo
Atletico Camioneros	2-1 W	0-0 D
Sportivo Italiano	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Laferrere (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Laferrere

DLLWDDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
27/09	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
19/09	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
12/09	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	14	4	D
06/09	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
25/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
22/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	8	3	L
15/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	3-5	6	5	L
09/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Deportivo Merlo

LDDLLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
26/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
20/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
13/09	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
06/09	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
01/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
27/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
09/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	0-4	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Laferrere win (55%). Probabilities: Deportivo Laferrere 55%, draw 28%, Deportivo Merlo 17%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Deportivo Laferrere 1.51 · Deportivo Merlo 0.74), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.