Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 17/10, 18:00

Prediction: NK Dobrovce vs NK Smartno

Team pages: NK Dobrovce · NK Smartno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

NK Dobrovce1.68

NK Smartno2.19

1X2

29% 22% 49%

NK Dobrovce Draw NK Smartno

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Dobrovce 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLWLLW

NK Smartno 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLWWWL

Head-to-head

NK Dobrovce 4–2 NK Smartno (6 last)

NK Smartno0-1NK Dobrovce
NK Dobrovce0-1NK Smartno
NK Dobrovce4-1NK Smartno
NK Smartno3-0NK Dobrovce
NK Dobrovce2-1NK Smartno
NK Smartno1-2NK Dobrovce

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Dobrovce 1491 · NK Smartno 1491

	NK Dobrovce	Draw	NK Smartno
Our model	29%	22%	49%
Market	29%	22%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Dobrovce: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Dobrovce	NK Smartno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.6	2.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.7 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.7	2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.00

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.91 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +13’	3.10	4.00	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +8’	3.08	3.84	1.85
07:22 +5’	2.96▼	3.78▼	1.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Dobrovce 4–0–2 NK Smartno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Dobrovce
11/10/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Smartno
16/11/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	4-1 HT 0-0	NK Smartno
18/08/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	3-0 HT 0-0	NK Dobrovce
30/03/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Smartno
17/09/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	1-2 HT 1-2	NK Dobrovce

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	9	7	2	0	27	11	23
2	NK Fuzinar	9	6	1	2	32	21	19
3	NK Ormoz	9	5	1	3	21	17	16
4	NK Hajdina	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
5	NK Smartno	9	5	1	3	23	19	16
6	NK Carda	9	4	3	2	22	15	15
7	SD Videm	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
8	NK Podvinci	10	4	2	4	15	19	14
9	NK Korotan Prevalje	9	2	5	2	13	12	11
10	NK Race	9	2	4	3	10	10	10
11	NK Dobrovce	9	3	0	6	12	23	9
12	NK Ljutomer	10	2	2	6	12	16	8
13	NK Limbus Pekre	9	1	2	6	7	22	5
14	NK Sampion Celje	9	1	1	7	11	21	4
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Dobrovce	NK Smartno
NK Korotan Prevalje	1-0 W	0-0 D
NK Ormoz	3-4 L	2-4 L
SD Videm	3-2 W	3-0 W
NK Fuzinar	1-5 L	1-5 L
NK Limbus Pekre	1-3 L	4-0 W
NK Ljutomer	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Smartno (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Dobrovce

DLLLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
03/10	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-4	2	3	L
30/09	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
12/09	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
06/09	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-2	5	4	W
29/08	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D

NK Smartno

LLDWWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
03/10	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/09	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	8-1	5	4	W
12/09	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	0-5	1-7	2	4	L
05/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
22/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-4	–	–	L
23/05	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Dobrovce vs NK Smartno?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Smartno win (49%). Probabilities: NK Dobrovce 29%, draw 22%, NK Smartno 49%.

How many goals are expected in NK Dobrovce vs NK Smartno?

The model expects 3.87 goals (NK Dobrovce 1.68 · NK Smartno 2.19), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Dobrovce vs NK Smartno?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.