Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: NK Skofja Loka vs ND Idrija

Team pages: NK Skofja Loka · ND Idrija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

NK Skofja Loka1.71

ND Idrija1.48

1X2

43% 24% 33%

NK Skofja Loka Draw ND Idrija

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Skofja Loka 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWDLWL

ND Idrija 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWLLW

Head-to-head

NK Skofja Loka 2–0 ND Idrija (2 last)

ND Idrija0-1NK Skofja Loka
NK Skofja Loka2-1ND Idrija

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Skofja Loka 1489 · ND Idrija 1529

	NK Skofja Loka	Draw	ND Idrija
Our model	42%	25%	33%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ND Idrija (rating 1489 vs 1529).
H2H favours NK Skofja Loka: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Skofja Loka	ND Idrija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	0.5 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	5.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.80

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +4’	2.10	3.80	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Skofja Loka 2–0–0 ND Idrija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	ND Idrija	0-1	NK Skofja Loka
11/10/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Skofja Loka	2-1	ND Idrija

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	9	9	0	0	40	6	27
2	Roltek DOB	9	6	2	1	22	7	20
3	ND Idrija	9	6	1	2	15	11	19
4	NK Sencur	9	4	4	1	17	11	16
5	NK Litija	9	4	3	2	16	8	15
6	NK Tolmin	9	4	3	2	18	12	15
7	NK Rudar Trbovlje	9	4	1	4	13	19	13
8	NK Skofja Loka	9	3	3	3	15	18	12
9	NK Adria Miren	9	3	1	5	19	17	10
10	NK Ziri	9	1	4	4	9	14	7
11	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	9	2	1	6	9	18	7
12	NK Fama Vipava	9	2	0	7	14	41	6
13	NK Sobec Lesce	9	0	4	5	6	16	4
14	Svoboda Ljubljana	9	1	1	7	6	21	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Skofja Loka	ND Idrija
Svoboda Ljubljana	0-1 L	1-0 W
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	3-2 W	2-0 W
NK Tolmin	2-2 D	2-0 W
NK Sencur	1-1 D	2-4 L
Roltek DOB	0-4 L	1-3 L
NK Fama Vipava	5-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ND Idrija (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Skofja Loka

LWLDDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	3-1	3-1	4	4	W
27/09	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-6	–	–	L
20/09	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
05/09	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
22/08	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-4	0	6	L
15/08	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	5-0	11	4	W
23/05	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L

ND Idrija

DWWWDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/10	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-4	–	–	L
26/09	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	2-1	1	8	W
22/08	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
23/05	ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Skofja Loka vs ND Idrija?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Skofja Loka win (43%). Probabilities: NK Skofja Loka 43%, draw 24%, ND Idrija 33%.

How many goals are expected in NK Skofja Loka vs ND Idrija?

The model expects 3.19 goals (NK Skofja Loka 1.71 · ND Idrija 1.48), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Skofja Loka vs ND Idrija?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.