Football · Japan Regional League · 27/09, 07:00

Prediction: Nankatsu SC vs Tokyo United FC

Team pages: Nankatsu SC · Tokyo United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Nankatsu SC1.49

Tokyo United FC1.62

1X2

34% 26% 40%

Nankatsu SC Draw Tokyo United FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nankatsu SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWWWLL

Tokyo United FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Nankatsu SC 3–3 Tokyo United FC (6 last)

Tokyo United FC1-0Nankatsu SC
Nankatsu SC2-3Tokyo United FC
Tokyo United FC1-2Nankatsu SC
Tokyo United FC0-1Nankatsu SC
Nankatsu SC2-0Tokyo United FC
Tokyo United FC1-0Nankatsu SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nankatsu SC 1513 · Tokyo United FC 1587

	Nankatsu SC	Draw	Tokyo United FC
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	35%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tokyo United FC (rating 1513 vs 1587).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nankatsu SC	Tokyo United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	2.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.9	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:58 +3’	2.60	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nankatsu SC 3–0–3 Tokyo United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Japan Regional League	Tokyo United FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Nankatsu SC
06/09/25 Japan Regional League	Nankatsu SC	2-3 HT 1-2	Tokyo United FC
01/06/25 Japan Regional League	Tokyo United FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Nankatsu SC
21/07/24 Japan Regional League	Tokyo United FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Nankatsu SC
14/04/24 Japan Regional League	Nankatsu SC	2-0	Tokyo United FC
04/09/22 Japan Regional League	Tokyo United FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Nankatsu SC

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nankatsu SC	Tokyo United FC
Tokyo 23 FC	0-2 L	4-1 W
Toho Titanium	2-1 W	3-0 W
Nihon University	3-0 W	1-0 W
Toin Yokohama University	3-1 W	4-0 W
EDO ALL United	4-2 W	1-1 D
Ryutsu Keizai Dragons	2-2 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tokyo United FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nankatsu SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	0-2	0-2	9	3	L
06/09	Aries Toshima FC Japan Regional League	0-1	1-2	14	5	L
23/08	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
26/07	Nihon University Japan Regional League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
19/07	Toin Yokohama University Japan Regional League	3-0	3-1	7	2	W
12/07	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	1-2	4-2	–	–	W
05/07	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
28/06	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	2-2	2-2	6	1	D
07/06	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	2-0	3-3	4	4	D
30/05	Aries Toshima FC Japan Regional League	0-1	1-2	9	9	L

Tokyo United FC

DWWWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	1-0	3-0	7	7	W
06/09	Nihon University Japan Regional League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/08	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	4-0	4-1	5	3	W
23/08	Toin Yokohama University Japan Regional League	1-0	4-0	4	7	W
08/08	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
19/07	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
11/07	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
07/06	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	2-1	4-2	5	4	W
16/05	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-1	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nankatsu SC vs Tokyo United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tokyo United FC win (40%). Probabilities: Nankatsu SC 34%, draw 26%, Tokyo United FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in Nankatsu SC vs Tokyo United FC?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Nankatsu SC 1.49 · Tokyo United FC 1.62), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nankatsu SC vs Tokyo United FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.