Football · Spain Tercera Group 15 · 26/09, 17:00

Prediction: UDC Txantrea vs Bidezarra

Team pages: UDC Txantrea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

UDC Txantrea1.52

Bidezarra1.06

1X2

47% 28% 25%

UDC Txantrea Draw Bidezarra

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UDC Txantrea 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLDW

Bidezarra 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDWDLL

Head-to-head

UDC Txantrea 4–2 Bidezarra (6 last)

Bidezarra4-2UDC Txantrea
UDC Txantrea2-1Bidezarra
Bidezarra0-1UDC Txantrea
UDC Txantrea0-1Bidezarra
Bidezarra0-2UDC Txantrea
UDC Txantrea2-1Bidezarra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UDC Txantrea 1471 · Bidezarra 1452

	UDC Txantrea	Draw	Bidezarra
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UDC Txantrea: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UDC Txantrea	Bidezarra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	0 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.3	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +10’	2.10	3.25	3.00
01:27 +8’	1.90▼	3.30▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UDC Txantrea 4–0–2 Bidezarra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 15	Bidezarra	4-2	UDC Txantrea
13/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 15	UDC Txantrea	2-1 HT 1-1	Bidezarra
26/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 15	Bidezarra	0-1	UDC Txantrea
14/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 15	UDC Txantrea	0-1 HT 0-1	Bidezarra
03/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 15	Bidezarra	0-2	UDC Txantrea
16/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 15	UDC Txantrea	2-1	Bidezarra

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 15

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Izarra	3	3	0	0	12	1	9
2	Beti Kozkor KE	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
3	CF Gazte Berriak	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
4	Aoiz	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
5	Avance	3	1	2	0	6	2	5
6	Mutilvera	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
7	Doneztebe FT	4	1	2	1	10	6	5
8	Subiza	3	1	1	1	8	6	4
9	UDC Txantrea	3	1	1	1	2	5	4
10	AD San Juan	3	1	0	2	6	5	3
11	CD Cantolagua	3	1	0	2	2	8	3
12	CD Beti Onak	3	0	3	0	3	3	3
13	Huarte	4	0	3	1	4	5	3
14	CD Cortes	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
15	CD Pamplona	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
16	Valle Egues	3	0	2	1	5	8	2
17	Cirbonero	3	0	2	1	1	5	2
18	Bidezarra	3	0	1	2	0	6	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UDC Txantrea	Bidezarra
Cirbonero	1-1 D	0-2 L
CD Cortes	3-1 W	0-2 L
Oberena	1-2 L	3-1 W
Izarra	1-2 L	0-4 L
Aoiz	2-0 W	0-0 D
CD Pamplona	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: UDC Txantrea (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UDC Txantrea

LLWLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	AD San Juan Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Cirbonero Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
05/09	Avance Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-4	–	–	L
09/05	CD Cortes Spain Tercera Group 15	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
03/05	Oberena Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/04	Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Bidezarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	2-4	–	–	L
11/04	Aoiz Spain Tercera Group 15	–	2-0	–	–	W
02/04	CD Pamplona Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	1-3	5	10	L
29/03	Cirbonero Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-1	–	–	L

Bidezarra

LLLWDDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-4	–	–	L
12/09	CD Cortes Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-2	–	–	L
05/09	Beti Kozkor KE Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-0	–	–	D
09/05	Oberena Spain Tercera Group 15	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Aoiz Spain Tercera Group 15	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
18/04	UDC Txantrea Spain Tercera Group 15	–	4-2	–	–	W
11/04	CD Pamplona Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-3	–	–	L
01/04	Cirbonero Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-2	–	–	L
28/03	At. Artajones Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UDC Txantrea vs Bidezarra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UDC Txantrea win (47%). Probabilities: UDC Txantrea 47%, draw 28%, Bidezarra 25%.

How many goals are expected in UDC Txantrea vs Bidezarra?

The model expects 2.58 goals (UDC Txantrea 1.52 · Bidezarra 1.06), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UDC Txantrea vs Bidezarra?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.