Football · Spain Tercera Group 15 · 27/09, 12:00

Prediction: Subiza vs Cirbonero

Team pages: Subiza · Cirbonero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Subiza1.74

Cirbonero0.94

1X2

55% 25% 19%

Subiza Draw Cirbonero

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Subiza 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDWLWD

Cirbonero 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLWLDD

Head-to-head

Subiza 3–2–1 Cirbonero (6 last)

Subiza0-1Cirbonero
Cirbonero1-2Subiza
Subiza2-0Cirbonero
Cirbonero0-0Subiza
Cirbonero0-0Subiza
Subiza1-0Cirbonero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Subiza 1505 · Cirbonero 1475

	Subiza	Draw	Cirbonero
Our model	55%	26%	19%
Market	56%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Subiza: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Subiza	Cirbonero
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	71/14/14%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.1	4 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.60 → 4.60	Bet365 4.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:52 +1’	1.61	3.60	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Subiza 3–2–1 Cirbonero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 15	Subiza	0-1 HT 0-0	Cirbonero
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 15	Cirbonero	1-2	Subiza
10/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 15	Subiza	2-0	Cirbonero
24/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 15	Cirbonero	0-0	Subiza
02/04/22 Spain Tercera Group 15	Cirbonero	0-0	Subiza
01/12/21 Spain Tercera Group 15	Subiza	1-0 HT 1-0	Cirbonero

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 15

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Izarra	3	3	0	0	12	1	9
2	Beti Kozkor KE	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
3	CF Gazte Berriak	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
4	Aoiz	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
5	Avance	3	1	2	0	6	2	5
6	Mutilvera	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
7	Doneztebe FT	4	1	2	1	10	6	5
8	Subiza	3	1	1	1	8	6	4
9	UDC Txantrea	3	1	1	1	2	5	4
10	AD San Juan	3	1	0	2	6	5	3
11	CD Cantolagua	3	1	0	2	2	8	3
12	CD Beti Onak	3	0	3	0	3	3	3
13	Huarte	4	0	3	1	4	5	3
14	CD Cortes	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
15	CD Pamplona	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
16	Valle Egues	3	0	2	1	5	8	2
17	Cirbonero	3	0	2	1	1	5	2
18	Bidezarra	3	0	1	2	0	6	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Subiza	Cirbonero
Valle Egues	5-2 W	2-0 W
Izarra	1-0 W	0-4 L
Huarte	1-2 L	0-2 L
CD Cortes	4-1 W	2-2 D
Oberena	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Subiza (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Subiza

WWLWLDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Avance Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
13/09	Valle Egues Spain Tercera Group 15	2-0	5-2	4	6	W
05/09	CF Gazte Berriak Spain Tercera Group 15	1-2	2-3	5	8	L
17/05	Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
09/05	Beti Kozkor KE Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	Pena Sport Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	Valle Egues Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	4-1	1	7	W
18/04	Huarte Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/04	CD Cortes Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
05/04	Oberena Spain Tercera Group 15	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

Cirbonero

WWLDDLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	CD Beti Onak Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	UDC Txantrea Spain Tercera Group 15	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
05/09	Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-4	–	–	L
09/05	Valle Egues Spain Tercera Group 15	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Huarte Spain Tercera Group 15	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	CD Cortes Spain Tercera Group 15	–	2-2	–	–	D
19/04	Oberena Spain Tercera Group 15	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
12/04	Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-3	–	–	L
01/04	Bidezarra Spain Tercera Group 15	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/03	UDC Txantrea Spain Tercera Group 15	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Subiza vs Cirbonero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Subiza win (55%). Probabilities: Subiza 55%, draw 25%, Cirbonero 19%.

How many goals are expected in Subiza vs Cirbonero?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Subiza 1.74 · Cirbonero 0.94), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Subiza vs Cirbonero?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.