Football · Spain Tercera Group 15 · 03/10, 18:00
Prediction: AD San Juan vs Subiza
Team pages: AD San Juan · Subiza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
AD San Juan1.44
Subiza1.19
1X2
AD San Juan
Draw
Subiza
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
AD San Juan
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Subiza
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AD San Juan
1–2–3
Subiza
(6 last)
- Subiza3-1AD San Juan
- AD San Juan0-0Subiza
- Subiza2-0AD San Juan
- AD San Juan1-1Subiza
- Subiza1-0AD San Juan
- AD San Juan3-1Subiza
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AD San Juan 1468 · Subiza 1517
| AD San Juan | Draw | Subiza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Subiza (rating 1468 vs 1517).
- H2H favours Subiza: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AD San Juan | Subiza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/50/25% | 71/14/14% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.8 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 1 | 6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AD San Juan 1–2–3 Subiza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 15 | Subiza | 3-1 HT 1-0 | AD San Juan |
| 27/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 15 | AD San Juan | 0-0 | Subiza |
| 21/08/24 Club Friendly List | Subiza | 2-0 HT 2-0 | AD San Juan |
| 27/03/21 Spain Tercera Group 15 | AD San Juan | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Subiza |
| 20/12/20 Spain Tercera Group 15 | Subiza | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AD San Juan |
| 15/12/19 Spain Tercera Group 15 | AD San Juan | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Subiza |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 15
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | CF Gazte Berriak | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Beti Kozkor KE | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Subiza | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | Aoiz | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Avance | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Doneztebe FT | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 5 |
| 9 | Valle Egues | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| 10 | UDC Txantrea | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | AD San Juan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | CD Beti Onak | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | CD Cortes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | CD Cantolagua | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| 15 | CD Pamplona | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Huarte | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 18 | Cirbonero | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AD San Juan | Subiza |
|---|---|---|
| Izarra | 1-4 L | 1-0 W |
| CD Cortes | 5-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Beti Kozkor KE | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Pena Sport | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Valle Egues | 1-3 L | 5-2 W |
| Huarte | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AD San Juan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | CD Beti Onak Spain Tercera Group 15 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 15 | D |
| 19/09 | UDC Txantrea Spain Tercera Group 15 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15 |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 05/09 | CD Cortes Spain Tercera Group 15 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | CD Pamplona Spain Tercera Group 15 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Ardoi Spain Tercera Group 15 |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Beti Kozkor KE Spain Tercera Group 15 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | Pena Sport Spain Tercera Group 15 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Valle Egues Spain Tercera Group 15 |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Huarte Spain Tercera Group 15 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Subiza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Cirbonero Spain Tercera Group 15 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Avance Spain Tercera Group 15 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 13/09 | Valle Egues Spain Tercera Group 15 |
2-0 | 5-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | CF Gazte Berriak Spain Tercera Group 15 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 17/05 | Izarra Spain Tercera Group 15 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Beti Kozkor KE Spain Tercera Group 15 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Pena Sport Spain Tercera Group 15 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Valle Egues Spain Tercera Group 15 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Huarte Spain Tercera Group 15 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | CD Cortes Spain Tercera Group 15 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AD San Juan vs Subiza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AD San Juan win (42%). Probabilities: AD San Juan 42%, draw 28%, Subiza 30%.
How many goals are expected in AD San Juan vs Subiza?
The model expects 2.63 goals (AD San Juan 1.44 · Subiza 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in AD San Juan vs Subiza?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.