Football · Mexico Liga TDP · 25/09, 23:30

Prediction: CD Pioneros Junior vs Corsarios de Campeche

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

CD Pioneros Junior1.14

Corsarios de Campeche0.73

1X2

46% 31% 24%

CD Pioneros Junior Draw Corsarios de Campeche

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Pioneros Junior 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDWLW

Corsarios de Campeche 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWWDWD

Head-to-head

CD Pioneros Junior 3–1–2 Corsarios de Campeche (6 last)

CD Pioneros Junior1-0Corsarios de Campeche
Corsarios de Campeche3-1CD Pioneros Junior
Corsarios de Campeche0-2CD Pioneros Junior
CD Pioneros Junior2-1Corsarios de Campeche
Corsarios de Campeche0-0CD Pioneros Junior
Corsarios de Campeche3-1CD Pioneros Junior

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Pioneros Junior 1555 · Corsarios de Campeche 1538

	CD Pioneros Junior	Draw	Corsarios de Campeche
Our model	44%	34%	22%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Pioneros Junior: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Pioneros Junior	Corsarios de Campeche
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	1 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +4’	1.91	3.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Pioneros Junior 3–1–2 Corsarios de Campeche

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/11/25 Mexico Liga TDP	CD Pioneros Junior	1-0 HT 1-0	Corsarios de Campeche
25/10/24 Mexico Liga TDP	Corsarios de Campeche	3-1 HT 3-0	CD Pioneros Junior
08/03/24 Mexico Liga TDP	Corsarios de Campeche	0-2 HT 0-1	CD Pioneros Junior
28/10/23 Mexico Liga TDP	CD Pioneros Junior	2-1 HT 1-1	Corsarios de Campeche
27/01/23 Mexico Liga TDP	Corsarios de Campeche	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Pioneros Junior
25/02/22 Mexico Liga TDP	Corsarios de Campeche	3-1 HT 1-0	CD Pioneros Junior

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Pioneros Junior	Corsarios de Campeche
Deportivo CTM Buhos	2-0 W	1-0 W
Ejidatarios de Bonfil	0-2 L	2-0 W
Deportiva Venados II	1-0 W	1-0 W
ISG Sport FC	5-1 W	3-0 W
Mons Calpe SC Yucatan	1-0 W	1-0 W
Boston Cancun FC	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Pioneros Junior (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Pioneros Junior

WDWWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/03	Deportivo CTM Buhos Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
06/03	Ejidatarios de Bonfil Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
20/02	Deportiva Venados II Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
14/02	Inter Playa del Carmen II Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
06/02	ISG Sport FC Mexico Liga TDP	4-0	5-1	6	1	W
28/11	Corsarios de Campeche Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
14/11	Mons Calpe SC Yucatan Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
01/11	Ejidatarios de Bonfil Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
24/10	Boston Cancun FC Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	1-1	3	1	D
18/10	Deportiva Venados II Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	2-1	1	3	W

Corsarios de Campeche

WDLWLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Estudiantes de Atlacomulco Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
14/03	Deportiva Venados II Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
14/02	Progreso FC Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
07/02	Deportivo CTM Buhos Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
05/12	Mons Calpe SC Yucatan Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
28/11	CD Pioneros Junior Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
21/11	Ejidatarios de Bonfil Mexico Liga TDP	2-0	2-0	2	9	W
15/11	Boston Cancun FC Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	0-3	2	3	L
09/11	Deportiva Venados II Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
24/10	ISG Sport FC Mexico Liga TDP	2-0	3-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Pioneros Junior vs Corsarios de Campeche?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Pioneros Junior win (46%). Probabilities: CD Pioneros Junior 46%, draw 31%, Corsarios de Campeche 24%.

How many goals are expected in CD Pioneros Junior vs Corsarios de Campeche?

The model expects 1.88 goals (CD Pioneros Junior 1.14 · Corsarios de Campeche 0.73), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Pioneros Junior vs Corsarios de Campeche?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.