Football · Mexico Liga TDP · 27/09, 00:00

Prediction: Ejidatarios de Bonfil vs Deportiva Venados II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Ejidatarios de Bonfil1.4

Deportiva Venados II1.08

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Ejidatarios de Bonfil Draw Deportiva Venados II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ejidatarios de Bonfil 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDLWWL

Deportiva Venados II 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLDLWLLD

Head-to-head

Ejidatarios de Bonfil 0–1–2 Deportiva Venados II (3 last)

Ejidatarios de Bonfil1-1Deportiva Venados II
Deportiva Venados II2-0Ejidatarios de Bonfil
Ejidatarios de Bonfil1-2Deportiva Venados II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ejidatarios de Bonfil 1486 · Deportiva Venados II 1476

	Ejidatarios de Bonfil	Draw	Deportiva Venados II
Our model	43%	29%	28%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportiva Venados II: 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ejidatarios de Bonfil	Deportiva Venados II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	2.3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:20 +4’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ejidatarios de Bonfil 0–1–2 Deportiva Venados II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/12/25 Mexico Liga TDP	Ejidatarios de Bonfil	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportiva Venados II
26/04/25 Mexico Liga TDP	Deportiva Venados II	2-0 HT 1-0	Ejidatarios de Bonfil
07/12/24 Mexico Liga TDP	Ejidatarios de Bonfil	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportiva Venados II

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ejidatarios de Bonfil	Deportiva Venados II
CD Pioneros Junior	2-0 W	0-1 L
Progreso FC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Corsarios de Campeche	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ejidatarios de Bonfil (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ejidatarios de Bonfil

DLWLWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Bombarderos de Tecamac FC Mexico Liga TDP	0-3	0-3	3	4	L
22/04	Bombarderos de Tecamac FC Mexico Liga TDP	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
06/03	CD Pioneros Junior Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
21/02	Boston Cancun FC Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
03/12	Deportiva Venados II Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	1-1	8	3	D
29/11	Progreso FC Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
21/11	Corsarios de Campeche Mexico Liga TDP	0-2	0-2	4	9	L
15/11	Chetumal Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
01/11	CD Pioneros Junior Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
18/10	Boston Cancun FC Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Deportiva Venados II

DWDLDLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Inter Playa del Carmen II Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
21/03	Progreso FC Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
14/03	Corsarios de Campeche Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
28/02	Mons Calpe SC Yucatan Mexico Liga TDP	2-0	5-0	9	3	W
20/02	CD Pioneros Junior Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
31/01	Deportivo CTM Buhos Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	1-1	10	0	D
06/12	Inter Playa del Carmen II Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
03/12	Ejidatarios de Bonfil Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
29/11	ISG Sport FC Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	2-0	9	1	W
16/11	Progreso FC Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ejidatarios de Bonfil vs Deportiva Venados II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ejidatarios de Bonfil win (44%). Probabilities: Ejidatarios de Bonfil 44%, draw 27%, Deportiva Venados II 29%.

How many goals are expected in Ejidatarios de Bonfil vs Deportiva Venados II?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Ejidatarios de Bonfil 1.4 · Deportiva Venados II 1.08), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ejidatarios de Bonfil vs Deportiva Venados II?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.