Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 26/09, 00:00

Prediction: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano

Team pages: Nacional Asuncion · Sportivo Ameliano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Nacional Asuncion1.4

Sportivo Ameliano0.78

1X2

51% 29% 20%

Nacional Asuncion Draw Sportivo Ameliano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Asuncion 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWWLWW

Sportivo Ameliano 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLWDLWWD

Head-to-head

Nacional Asuncion 1–3–2 Sportivo Ameliano (6 last)

Sportivo Ameliano1-1Nacional Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano1-1Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-1Sportivo Ameliano
Nacional Asuncion2-0Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano3-0Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion0-1Sportivo Ameliano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Asuncion 1579 · Sportivo Ameliano 1500

	Nacional Asuncion	Draw	Sportivo Ameliano
Our model	50%	30%	20%
Market	51%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Asuncion (rating 1579 vs 1500).
H2H favours Sportivo Ameliano: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Asuncion	Sportivo Ameliano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	1.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.25

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.77
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.41
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.66 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +2’	1.75	3.25	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:46 +150’	1.77	3.41	4.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Asuncion 1–3–2 Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
21/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 HT 1-1	Nacional Asuncion
20/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
20/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	2-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
29/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	3-0 HT 1-0	Nacional Asuncion
04/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	0-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Ameliano

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Asuncion	Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo	3-0 W	1-1 D
Rubio Nu	1-0 W	1-1 D
Cerro Porteno	0-1 L	1-0 W
Libertad Asuncion	3-0 W	1-1 D
Sportivo San Lorenzo	3-0 W	1-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	2-0 W	2-1 W
Sportivo Trinidense	1-1 D	0-3 L
Guarani Asuncion	0-0 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	2-3 L	3-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Asuncion

WLDDWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
13/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
07/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
02/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
28/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
24/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
09/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
03/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
29/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Sportivo Ameliano

DDWLWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
11/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
02/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
30/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
22/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
16/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
01/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/07	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Asuncion win (51%). Probabilities: Nacional Asuncion 51%, draw 29%, Sportivo Ameliano 20%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Nacional Asuncion 1.4 · Sportivo Ameliano 0.78), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.