Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 30/09, 22:00

Prediction: Sportivo Trinidense vs Cerro Porteno

Team pages: Sportivo Trinidense · Cerro Porteno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Sportivo Trinidense1

Cerro Porteno1.2

1X2

30% 31% 40%

Sportivo Trinidense Draw Cerro Porteno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Trinidense 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLWLWL

Cerro Porteno 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDWWDW

Head-to-head

Sportivo Trinidense 3–1–2 Cerro Porteno (6 last)

Cerro Porteno1-2Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense3-1Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno2-1Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense0-0Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno1-3Sportivo Trinidense
Cerro Porteno1-0Sportivo Trinidense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Trinidense 1507 · Cerro Porteno 1522

	Sportivo Trinidense	Draw	Cerro Porteno
Our model	29%	32%	39%
Market	30%	30%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sportivo Trinidense: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Trinidense	Cerro Porteno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.7	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +10’	3.00	3.00	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Trinidense 3–1–2 Cerro Porteno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	1-2 HT 1-0	Sportivo Trinidense
15/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	3-1 HT 1-0	Cerro Porteno
15/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	2-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Trinidense
09/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	0-0 HT 0-0	Cerro Porteno
24/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	1-3 HT 1-1	Sportivo Trinidense
21/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	1-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo Trinidense

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Trinidense	Cerro Porteno
Guarani Asuncion	0-1 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	3-1 W	3-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	1-2 L	1-2 L
Sportivo Ameliano	3-0 W	0-1 L
2 de Mayo	0-1 L	1-2 L
Rubio Nu	0-0 D	1-0 W
Nacional Asuncion	1-1 D	1-0 W
Libertad Asuncion	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sportivo San Lorenzo	3-0 W	1-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	4-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Trinidense

WWLDDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
12/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	3-1	5	7	W
06/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
02/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
29/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
21/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
15/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
10/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
03/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	1	1	W
29/07	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	4-1	4	5	W

Cerro Porteno

LWLWLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
12/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
07/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
03/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	3-0	3-1	3	2	W
30/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
23/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
16/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
08/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
01/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
28/07	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Trinidense vs Cerro Porteno?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cerro Porteno win (40%). Probabilities: Sportivo Trinidense 30%, draw 31%, Cerro Porteno 40%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Trinidense vs Cerro Porteno?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Sportivo Trinidense 1 · Cerro Porteno 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Trinidense vs Cerro Porteno?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.