Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 30/09, 22:00

Prediction: Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Recoleta

Team pages: Sportivo San Lorenzo · Deportivo Recoleta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Sportivo San Lorenzo1.27

Deportivo Recoleta1.48

1X2

31% 28% 41%

Sportivo San Lorenzo Draw Deportivo Recoleta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo San Lorenzo 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Deportivo Recoleta 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Sportivo San Lorenzo 0–2–4 Deportivo Recoleta (6 last)

Deportivo Recoleta1-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
Deportivo Recoleta4-2Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo0-3Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo San Lorenzo0-0Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta4-2Sportivo San Lorenzo
Deportivo Recoleta2-1Sportivo San Lorenzo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1388 · Deportivo Recoleta 1425

	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Draw	Deportivo Recoleta
Our model	31%	28%	41%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Recoleta: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Deportivo Recoleta
Goals for / against (FT)	0.2 / 2	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +2’	2.90	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo San Lorenzo 0–2–4 Deportivo Recoleta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	1-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo San Lorenzo
05/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	4-2 HT 2-1	Sportivo San Lorenzo
06/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-3 HT 0-0	Deportivo Recoleta
17/08/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Recoleta
11/05/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Recoleta	4-2 HT 1-2	Sportivo San Lorenzo
08/07/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Recoleta	2-1 HT 2-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia Asuncion	0-3 L	1-2 L
Sportivo Ameliano	0-1 L	1-3 L
2 de Mayo	1-2 L	1-2 L
Rubio Nu	1-3 L	3-1 W
Nacional Asuncion	0-3 L	3-2 W
Libertad Asuncion	0-1 L	1-4 L
Cerro Porteno	0-1 L	1-3 L
Sportivo Luqueno	0-2 L	0-1 L
Sportivo Trinidense	0-3 L	1-3 L
Guarani Asuncion	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 10 L	2 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Recoleta (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo San Lorenzo

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
11/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
05/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
01/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-3	5	7	L
28/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
24/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
16/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
09/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
03/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
30/07	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	0	L

Deportivo Recoleta

LWWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
12/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-3	1	7	L
07/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
03/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-3	1-3	6	2	L
29/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	8	1	L
07/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
03/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-2	0	3	W
30/07	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-4	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Recoleta?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Recoleta win (41%). Probabilities: Sportivo San Lorenzo 31%, draw 28%, Deportivo Recoleta 41%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Recoleta?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Sportivo San Lorenzo 1.27 · Deportivo Recoleta 1.48), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Recoleta?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.