Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 30/09, 22:00

Prediction: Libertad Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion

Team pages: Libertad Asuncion · Olimpia Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Libertad Asuncion1.33

Olimpia Asuncion1.4

1X2

34% 28% 38%

Libertad Asuncion Draw Olimpia Asuncion

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Libertad Asuncion 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLWWD

Olimpia Asuncion 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Libertad Asuncion 2–3–1 Olimpia Asuncion (6 last)

Olimpia Asuncion0-1Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion3-2Olimpia Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion1-0Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion2-2Olimpia Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion0-0Libertad Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion1-1Libertad Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Libertad Asuncion 1561 · Olimpia Asuncion 1551

	Libertad Asuncion	Draw	Olimpia Asuncion
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Libertad Asuncion: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Libertad Asuncion	Olimpia Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.5	3.4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +6’	2.63	3.20	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Asuncion 2–3–1 Olimpia Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	0-1 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion
26/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	3-2 HT 2-0	Olimpia Asuncion
26/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	1-0 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion
02/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	2-2 HT 1-2	Olimpia Asuncion
17/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	0-0 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion
22/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-1	Libertad Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Libertad Asuncion	Olimpia Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 D	2-1 W
2 de Mayo	2-0 W	0-1 L
Rubio Nu	4-2 W	5-0 W
Nacional Asuncion	0-3 L	0-2 L
Cerro Porteno	1-1 D	2-1 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 W	3-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	2-1 W	3-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	2-1 W	2-1 W
Guarani Asuncion	1-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	4-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	7 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpia Asuncion (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Libertad Asuncion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
11/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
06/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	4-2	9	3	W
02/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
30/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
24/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
30/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	4-1	6	4	W

Olimpia Asuncion

LWLWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
13/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
06/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
02/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
23/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	10	3	W
16/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
08/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
02/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	5-0	5	2	W
29/07	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	11	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Libertad Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olimpia Asuncion win (38%). Probabilities: Libertad Asuncion 34%, draw 28%, Olimpia Asuncion 38%.

How many goals are expected in Libertad Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Libertad Asuncion 1.33 · Olimpia Asuncion 1.4), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Libertad Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.