Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: NK Korotan Prevalje vs NK Ljutomer

Team pages: NK Korotan Prevalje · NK Ljutomer

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

NK Korotan Prevalje1.77

NK Ljutomer1.44

1X2

45% 25% 31%

NK Korotan Prevalje Draw NK Ljutomer

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Korotan Prevalje 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDDDL

NK Ljutomer 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWLWLD

Head-to-head

NK Korotan Prevalje 0–5–0 NK Ljutomer (5 last)

NK Korotan Prevalje2-2NK Ljutomer
NK Ljutomer0-0NK Korotan Prevalje
NK Korotan Prevalje1-1NK Ljutomer
NK Ljutomer1-1NK Korotan Prevalje
NK Korotan Prevalje0-0NK Ljutomer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Korotan Prevalje 1513 · NK Ljutomer 1505

	NK Korotan Prevalje	Draw	NK Ljutomer
Our model	44%	25%	30%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Korotan Prevalje	NK Ljutomer
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	2.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.3	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/75/25%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.5	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 1.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:27 +8’	2.00	3.70	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Korotan Prevalje 0–5–0 NK Ljutomer

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Korotan Prevalje	2-2 HT 2-2	NK Ljutomer
27/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ljutomer	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Korotan Prevalje
04/05/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Korotan Prevalje	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Ljutomer
19/10/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ljutomer	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Korotan Prevalje
07/09/19 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Korotan Prevalje	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Ljutomer

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	5	5	0	0	16	7	15
2	NK Podvinci	5	3	1	1	10	5	10
3	NK Ormoz	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
4	NK Fuzinar	5	3	0	2	15	11	9
5	NK Hajdina	5	2	2	1	9	9	8
6	NK Carda	5	2	1	2	14	10	7
7	NK Ljutomer	5	2	1	2	9	7	7
8	NK Smartno	5	2	1	2	8	12	7
9	NK Korotan Prevalje	5	1	3	1	5	5	6
10	SD Videm	5	2	0	3	8	12	6
11	NK Limbus Pekre	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
12	NK Dobrovce	5	1	0	4	6	16	3
13	NK Race	5	0	2	3	4	7	2
14	NK Sampion Celje	4	0	1	3	6	11	1
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Korotan Prevalje	NK Ljutomer
SD Videm	4-2 W	6-4 W
NK Dobrovce	2-1 W	3-0 W
NK Rogaska	3-0 W	6-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: NK Ljutomer (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Korotan Prevalje

WWLWLWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
04/09	Carda Martjanci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
26/08	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
22/08	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-2	–	–	W
23/05	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
16/05	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-2	–	–	W
09/05	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-5	–	–	L
05/05	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
24/04	NK Rogaska Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	3-0	2	2	W

NK Ljutomer

LLWDWWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
05/09	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
29/08	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
22/08	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-3	6	12	L
15/08	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	–	6-4	–	–	W
16/05	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D
10/05	NK Rogaska Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	6-2	7	5	W
25/04	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-5	–	–	L
18/04	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Korotan Prevalje vs NK Ljutomer?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Korotan Prevalje win (45%). Probabilities: NK Korotan Prevalje 45%, draw 25%, NK Ljutomer 31%.

How many goals are expected in NK Korotan Prevalje vs NK Ljutomer?

The model expects 3.21 goals (NK Korotan Prevalje 1.77 · NK Ljutomer 1.44), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Korotan Prevalje vs NK Ljutomer?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.