Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: NK Ljutomer vs NK Smartno

Team pages: NK Ljutomer · NK Smartno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.07Total

NK Ljutomer2.1

NK Smartno1.97

1X2

41% 23% 36%

NK Ljutomer Draw NK Smartno

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Ljutomer 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWLDD

NK Smartno 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDWWLW

Head-to-head

NK Ljutomer 1–5 NK Smartno (6 last)

NK Ljutomer2-3NK Smartno
NK Smartno4-2NK Ljutomer
NK Ljutomer2-9NK Smartno
NK Smartno4-1NK Ljutomer
NK Smartno4-2NK Ljutomer
NK Smartno0-5NK Ljutomer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Ljutomer 1507 · NK Smartno 1503

	NK Ljutomer	Draw	NK Smartno
Our model	41%	22%	37%
Market	41%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Smartno: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Ljutomer	NK Smartno
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.2	2.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.8 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.80

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 1.4 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:45 +27’	2.20	3.80	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Ljutomer 1–0–5 NK Smartno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ljutomer	2-3	NK Smartno
21/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	4-2 HT 0-1	NK Ljutomer
10/05/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ljutomer	2-9 HT 1-5	NK Smartno
27/10/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	4-1 HT 1-0	NK Ljutomer
10/03/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	4-2 HT 1-0	NK Ljutomer
02/04/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	0-5 HT 0-2	NK Ljutomer

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	6	5	1	0	19	10	16
2	NK Ormoz	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
3	NK Fuzinar	6	4	0	2	19	13	12
4	NK Smartno	6	3	1	2	16	13	10
5	NK Podvinci	6	3	1	2	11	13	10
6	NK Hajdina	7	2	3	2	13	15	9
7	NK Carda	6	2	2	2	16	12	8
8	NK Ljutomer	6	2	2	2	10	8	8
9	SD Videm	7	2	2	3	13	17	8
10	NK Korotan Prevalje	6	1	4	1	6	6	7
11	NK Dobrovce	6	2	0	4	8	16	6
12	NK Sampion Celje	6	1	1	4	10	13	4
13	NK Limbus Pekre	6	1	1	4	5	14	4
14	NK Race	6	0	3	3	6	9	3
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Ljutomer	NK Smartno
NK Korotan Prevalje	1-1 D	0-0 D
NK Ormoz	1-1 D	2-4 L
SD Videm	6-4 W	3-0 W
NK Carda	2-5 L	1-7 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Ljutomer (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Ljutomer

LWDWWLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
12/09	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
05/09	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
29/08	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
22/08	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-3	6	12	L
15/08	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	–	6-4	–	–	W
16/05	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D
10/05	NK Rogaska Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	6-2	7	5	W
25/04	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-5	–	–	L

NK Smartno

LWWLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	8-1	5	4	W
12/09	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	0-5	1-7	2	4	L
05/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
22/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-4	–	–	L
23/05	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/05	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
10/05	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/05	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	2-5	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Ljutomer vs NK Smartno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Ljutomer win (41%). Probabilities: NK Ljutomer 41%, draw 23%, NK Smartno 36%.

How many goals are expected in NK Ljutomer vs NK Smartno?

The model expects 4.07 goals (NK Ljutomer 2.1 · NK Smartno 1.97), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Ljutomer vs NK Smartno?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.