Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: NK Podvinci vs NK Race

Team pages: NK Podvinci · NK Race

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

NK Podvinci1.47

NK Race1.43

1X2

38% 25% 37%

NK Podvinci Draw NK Race

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Podvinci 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDWWWL

NK Race 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLDLLD

Head-to-head

NK Podvinci 2–2 NK Race (4 last)

NK Race3-1NK Podvinci
NK Podvinci0-1NK Race
NK Podvinci2-1NK Race
NK Podvinci4-1NK Race

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Podvinci 1493 · NK Race 1489

	NK Podvinci	Draw	NK Race
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Podvinci	NK Race
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.2	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/67/17%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.2	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:57 +15’	2.30	3.75	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Podvinci 2–0–2 NK Race

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Race	3-1	NK Podvinci
11/10/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	0-1	NK Race
04/05/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	2-1 HT 0-1	NK Race
22/04/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	4-1 HT 2-0	NK Race

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	6	5	1	0	19	10	16
2	NK Ormoz	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
3	NK Fuzinar	6	4	0	2	19	13	12
4	NK Smartno	6	3	1	2	16	13	10
5	NK Podvinci	6	3	1	2	11	13	10
6	NK Hajdina	7	2	3	2	13	15	9
7	NK Carda	6	2	2	2	16	12	8
8	NK Ljutomer	6	2	2	2	10	8	8
9	SD Videm	7	2	2	3	13	17	8
10	NK Korotan Prevalje	6	1	4	1	6	6	7
11	NK Dobrovce	6	2	0	4	8	16	6
12	NK Sampion Celje	6	1	1	4	10	13	4
13	NK Limbus Pekre	6	1	1	4	5	14	4
14	NK Race	6	0	3	3	6	9	3
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Podvinci	NK Race
NK Smartno	1-8 L	1-2 L
NK Korotan Prevalje	2-0 W	0-0 D
NK Ormoz	2-0 W	1-2 L
NK Hajdina	4-1 W	1-1 D
NK Brezice	1-3 L	0-1 L
DNS Zavrc	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Podvinci

LLLWLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-8	6	4	L
12/09	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/08	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	4-1	0	2	W
22/08	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	5	7	L
23/05	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
16/05	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-3	1	6	L
30/04	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	2-3	4	5	L

NK Race

LDLWDLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	2-2	3	7	D
11/09	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
05/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
22/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/05	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/05	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-2	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Podvinci vs NK Race?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Podvinci win (38%). Probabilities: NK Podvinci 38%, draw 25%, NK Race 37%.

How many goals are expected in NK Podvinci vs NK Race?

The model expects 2.9 goals (NK Podvinci 1.47 · NK Race 1.43), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Podvinci vs NK Race?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.