Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK Sencur

Team pages: Svoboda Ljubljana · NK Sencur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Svoboda Ljubljana0.73

NK Sencur2.43

1X2

9% 16% 75%

Svoboda Ljubljana Draw NK Sencur

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Svoboda Ljubljana 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDLLLL

NK Sencur 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDDDLW

Head-to-head

Svoboda Ljubljana 3–1–2 NK Sencur (6 last)

Svoboda Ljubljana0-0NK Sencur
NK Sencur1-0Svoboda Ljubljana
NK Sencur0-1Svoboda Ljubljana
Svoboda Ljubljana2-1NK Sencur
NK Sencur1-2Svoboda Ljubljana
Svoboda Ljubljana1-3NK Sencur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Svoboda Ljubljana 1422 · NK Sencur 1565

	Svoboda Ljubljana	Draw	NK Sencur
Our model	9%	17%	74%
Market	9%	16%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Sencur (rating 1422 vs 1565).
H2H favours Svoboda Ljubljana: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Svoboda Ljubljana	NK Sencur
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.9	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	2.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

19.50

X5.75

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.90

2 (-2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:55 +17’	9.50	5.75	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Svoboda Ljubljana 3–1–2 NK Sencur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	Svoboda Ljubljana	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Sencur
26/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	1-0 HT 0-0	Svoboda Ljubljana
16/04/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	0-1 HT 0-0	Svoboda Ljubljana
31/08/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	Svoboda Ljubljana	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Sencur
29/03/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	1-2 HT 0-1	Svoboda Ljubljana
16/09/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	Svoboda Ljubljana	1-3 HT 1-2	NK Sencur

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	6	6	0	0	28	4	18
2	ND Idrija	6	5	1	0	10	4	16
3	Roltek DOB	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
4	NK Rudar Trbovlje	6	3	1	2	9	10	10
5	NK Tolmin	6	2	3	1	11	9	9
6	NK Sencur	6	2	3	1	12	9	9
7	NK Skofja Loka	6	2	3	1	12	10	9
8	NK Litija	6	2	2	2	8	7	8
9	NK Adria Miren	6	2	1	3	11	11	7
10	NK Ziri	6	1	3	2	7	10	6
11	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	6	1	0	5	6	13	3
12	NK Fama Vipava	6	1	0	5	10	28	3
13	NK Sobec Lesce	6	0	3	3	4	10	3
14	Svoboda Ljubljana	6	0	1	5	5	18	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Svoboda Ljubljana	NK Sencur
Roltek DOB	0-4 L	1-0 W
NK Skofja Loka	2-1 W	1-1 D
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	0-3 L	3-0 W
MNK Izola	2-2 D	2-5 L
NK Vrhnika	1-5 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Sencur (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Svoboda Ljubljana

LDLWLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-3	0-4	8	4	L
12/09	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-5	–	–	L
05/09	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-4	–	–	L
30/08	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
23/08	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
15/08	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
23/05	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
09/05	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-2	–	–	D
02/05	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L

NK Sencur

WWWLWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
12/09	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-5	–	–	L
04/09	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D
14/08	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
09/05	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-1	3	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK Sencur?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Sencur win (75%). Probabilities: Svoboda Ljubljana 9%, draw 16%, NK Sencur 75%.

How many goals are expected in Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK Sencur?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Svoboda Ljubljana 0.73 · NK Sencur 2.43), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK Sencur?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.