Football · Austria Bundesliga · 10/10, 19:30

Prediction: FK Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz

Team pages: FK Austria Vienna · SK Sturm Graz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

FK Austria Vienna1.36

SK Sturm Graz1.62

1X2

31% 27% 42%

FK Austria Vienna Draw SK Sturm Graz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Austria Vienna 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLLWD

SK Sturm Graz 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWDLWL

Head-to-head

FK Austria Vienna 4–1–1 SK Sturm Graz (6 last)

SK Sturm Graz1-1FK Austria Vienna
FK Austria Vienna2-5SK Sturm Graz
FK Austria Vienna3-1SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz0-1FK Austria Vienna
SK Sturm Graz0-1FK Austria Vienna
FK Austria Vienna2-1SK Sturm Graz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Austria Vienna 1507 · SK Sturm Graz 1557

	FK Austria Vienna	Draw	SK Sturm Graz
Our model	31%	26%	42%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Sturm Graz (rating 1507 vs 1557).
H2H favours FK Austria Vienna: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Austria Vienna	SK Sturm Graz
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	3.4 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.15 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.56
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.21

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:10 +2’	3.00	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:30 +462’	3.15	3.56	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Austria Vienna 4–1–1 SK Sturm Graz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Austria Vienna
15/03/26 Austria Bundesliga	FK Austria Vienna	2-5 HT 1-2	SK Sturm Graz
14/12/25 Austria Bundesliga	FK Austria Vienna	3-1 HT 2-1	SK Sturm Graz
14/09/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Austria Vienna
27/04/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Austria Vienna
23/04/25 Austria Bundesliga	FK Austria Vienna	2-1 HT 1-1	SK Sturm Graz

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	7	6	0	1	21	7	18
2	FC Salzburg	7	5	2	0	18	4	17
3	LASK Linz	7	5	1	1	19	7	16
4	SK Sturm Graz	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
5	WSG Swarovski Tirol	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
6	Hartberg	7	2	2	3	10	13	8
7	SV Ried	7	2	2	3	11	12	8
8	Grazer AK	7	2	2	3	6	16	8
9	Austria Lustenau	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
10	FK Austria Vienna	7	2	1	4	7	13	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
12	SCR Altach	7	1	0	6	5	12	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Austria Vienna	SK Sturm Graz
Austria Lustenau	2-1 W	1-1 D
WSG Swarovski Tirol	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Salzburg	1-4 L	0-3 L
Hartberg	2-0 W	2-0 W
LASK Linz	0-2 L	2-1 W
Rapid Vienna	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Austria Vienna

WWLLLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-2	4	8	D
13/09	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
02/09	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
30/08	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-3	1-4	4	2	L
16/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
09/08	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
02/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
17/05	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-3	8	2	L
10/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	6	1	W

SK Sturm Graz

DWWDWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-3	8	3	L
13/09	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
22/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
08/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
01/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
17/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
10/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	3-1	4-2	7	6	W
03/05	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	9	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SK Sturm Graz win (42%). Probabilities: FK Austria Vienna 31%, draw 27%, SK Sturm Graz 42%.

How many goals are expected in FK Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model expects 2.99 goals (FK Austria Vienna 1.36 · SK Sturm Graz 1.62), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.