Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 07/10, 20:30

Prediction: FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia

Team pages: FC Cartagena · Real Murcia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

FC Cartagena1.27

Real Murcia1.11

1X2

39% 30% 31%

FC Cartagena Draw Real Murcia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cartagena 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWDDLW

Real Murcia 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

FC Cartagena 3–1–2 Real Murcia (6 last)

Real Murcia1-2FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena0-1Real Murcia
FC Cartagena3-1Real Murcia
FC Cartagena2-0Real Murcia
Real Murcia2-0FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena1-1Real Murcia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cartagena 1520 · Real Murcia 1557

	FC Cartagena	Draw	Real Murcia
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Cartagena: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cartagena	Real Murcia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.6	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.58 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:50 +4’	2.30	3.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +48’	2.58	2.96	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cartagena 3–1–2 Real Murcia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Real Murcia	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Cartagena
08/12/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	FC Cartagena	0-1 HT 0-1	Real Murcia
05/08/23 Europe Friendlies	FC Cartagena	3-1 HT 3-0	Real Murcia
10/08/21 Europe Friendlies	FC Cartagena	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Murcia
08/12/19 Spain Segunda B Group 4	Real Murcia	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Cartagena
07/04/19 Spain Segunda B Group 4	FC Cartagena	1-1 HT 1-0	Real Murcia

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	6	5	0	1	12	6	15
2	Villarreal B	6	4	1	1	12	6	13
3	Alcorcon	6	3	3	0	13	4	12
4	Real Murcia	5	4	0	1	10	6	12
5	Real Jaen	6	3	2	1	8	5	11
6	Hercules	6	3	1	2	5	5	10
7	Antequera	6	2	3	1	10	8	9
8	UD Ibiza	6	3	0	3	8	8	9
9	Huesca	6	2	3	1	7	7	9
10	FC Cartagena	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
11	Atletico Madrid B	6	2	2	2	11	8	8
12	Real Madrid B	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
13	UE Sant Andreu	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
14	Gimnastic	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
15	Algeciras CF	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
16	Aguilas	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Rayo Majadahonda	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
18	CE Europa	6	1	1	4	4	10	4
19	Teruel	6	0	2	4	2	12	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos CF	6	0	1	5	6	16	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cartagena	Real Murcia
Gimnastic	0-0 D	2-0 W
Betis Deportivo	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cartagena

WDWLDWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	4-1	4-1	3	3	W
20/09	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
05/09	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	13	5	D
29/08	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
23/05	Betis Deportivo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
16/05	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	1-3	1	2	L
08/05	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
01/05	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-2	2-2	3	14	D
26/04	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Real Murcia

WDLWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
13/09	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-2	0-4	7	5	L
06/09	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	4-0	1	4	W
29/08	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
24/05	Eldense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
16/05	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Betis Deportivo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
03/05	Sabadell Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	2-2	2	3	D
26/04	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	2-0	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cartagena win (39%). Probabilities: FC Cartagena 39%, draw 30%, Real Murcia 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia?

The model expects 2.39 goals (FC Cartagena 1.27 · Real Murcia 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.