Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 10/10, 18:30

Prediction: Teruel vs Alcorcon

Team pages: Teruel · Alcorcon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Teruel0.84

Alcorcon1.32

1X2

23% 29% 48%

Teruel Draw Alcorcon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Teruel 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLLLDL

Alcorcon 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDDWWW

Head-to-head

Teruel 0–3 Alcorcon (3 last)

Teruel1-2Alcorcon
Alcorcon2-1Teruel
Teruel0-1Alcorcon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Teruel 1411 · Alcorcon 1548

	Teruel	Draw	Alcorcon
Our model	22%	31%	47%
Market	24%	28%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alcorcon (rating 1411 vs 1548).
H2H favours Alcorcon: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Teruel	Alcorcon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 1.6	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.20

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
18:49 +17’	3.75	3.20	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Teruel 0–0–3 Alcorcon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Teruel	1-2 HT 1-0	Alcorcon
06/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Alcorcon	2-1 HT 1-1	Teruel
30/11/21 Spain Copa del Rey	Teruel	0-1 HT 0-1	Alcorcon

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	6	5	0	1	12	6	15
2	Villarreal B	6	4	1	1	12	6	13
3	Alcorcon	6	3	3	0	13	4	12
4	Real Murcia	5	4	0	1	10	6	12
5	Real Jaen	6	3	2	1	8	5	11
6	Hercules	6	3	1	2	5	5	10
7	Antequera	6	2	3	1	10	8	9
8	UD Ibiza	6	3	0	3	8	8	9
9	Huesca	6	2	3	1	7	7	9
10	FC Cartagena	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
11	Atletico Madrid B	6	2	2	2	11	8	8
12	Real Madrid B	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
13	UE Sant Andreu	6	2	2	2	7	7	8
14	Gimnastic	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
15	Algeciras CF	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
16	Aguilas	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Rayo Majadahonda	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
18	CE Europa	6	1	1	4	4	10	4
19	Teruel	6	0	2	4	2	12	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos CF	6	0	1	5	6	16	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Teruel	Alcorcon
Real Madrid B	0-0 D	2-1 W
Marbella FC	1-3 L	6-2 W
Antequera	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Alcorcon (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Teruel

DLDLDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-4	2	6	L
27/09	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
19/09	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
12/09	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
06/09	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-4	6	4	L
31/08	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
22/05	Marbella FC Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-3	1-3	7	2	L
16/05	Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
10/05	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
03/05	SD Tarazona Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	2	8	D

Alcorcon

LLWDDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	4-0	5-0	5	1	W
27/09	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
20/09	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-0	3-0	7	5	W
12/09	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
30/08	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-2	3	4	D
23/05	Sevilla Atletico Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/05	Marbella FC Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-0	6-2	4	4	W
08/05	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
01/05	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	10	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Teruel vs Alcorcon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alcorcon win (48%). Probabilities: Teruel 23%, draw 29%, Alcorcon 48%.

How many goals are expected in Teruel vs Alcorcon?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Teruel 0.84 · Alcorcon 1.32), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Teruel vs Alcorcon?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.