Football · France Division 1 Women · 18/09, 19:00
Prediction: Le Havre (W) vs Lyon (W)
Team pages: Le Havre (W) · Lyon (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
5.04Total
Le Havre (W)1.52
Lyon (W)3.52
1X2
Le Havre (W)
Draw
Lyon (W)
Markets
Under 5.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-3 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Le Havre (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Lyon (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Le Havre (W)
0–6
Lyon (W)
(6 last)
- Lyon (W)7-0Le Havre (W)
- Lyon (W)3-0Le Havre (W)
- Le Havre (W)0-7Lyon (W)
- Lyon (W)2-0Le Havre (W)
- Le Havre (W)0-3Lyon (W)
- Lyon (W)3-0Le Havre (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Le Havre (W) 1453 · Lyon (W) 1660
| Le Havre (W) | Draw | Lyon (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 13% | 74% |
| Market | 2% | 3% | 95% |
Estimated total (ours)
5.04 goals · Bet365 line 5.75 · -0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 86%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lyon (W) (rating 1453 vs 1660).
- H2H favours Lyon (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Le Havre (W) | Lyon (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 4.2 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 2.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.7 | 4.5 / 9.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Le Havre (W) 0–0–6 Lyon (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/26 France Cup Women | Lyon (W) | 7-0 HT 1-0 | Le Havre (W) |
| 10/03/26 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Le Havre (W) |
| 13/12/25 France Division 1 Women | Le Havre (W) | 0-7 HT 0-2 | Lyon (W) |
| 07/05/25 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Le Havre (W) |
| 23/11/24 France Division 1 Women | Le Havre (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Lyon (W) |
| 31/03/24 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Le Havre (W) |
Standings · France Division 1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | PSG (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Marseille (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Strasbourg (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Saint Malo (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Le Havre (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Paris FC (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Montpellier (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Nantes (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | FC Fleury 91 (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 11 | Lens (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 | Toulouse (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Le Havre (W) | Lyon (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes (W) | 3-3 D | 8-0 W |
| Strasbourg (W) | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Dijon (W) | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Paris FC (W) | 0-4 L | 7-1 W |
| Montpellier (W) | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lyon (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Le Havre (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Toulouse (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Lens (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 22/03 | Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 10/03 | Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 22/02 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 07/02 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Lyon (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 7-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
6-1 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 22/04 | Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 20 | 4 | W |
| 10/03 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 15 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Le Havre (W) vs Lyon (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lyon (W) win (86%). Probabilities: Le Havre (W) 7%, draw 8%, Lyon (W) 86%.
How many goals are expected in Le Havre (W) vs Lyon (W)?
The model expects 5.04 goals (Le Havre (W) 1.52 · Lyon (W) 3.52), with a 59% chance of under 5.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Le Havre (W) vs Lyon (W)?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.