Football · France Division 1 Women · 18/09, 21:00

Prediction: PSG (W) vs Nantes (W)

Team pages: PSG (W) · Nantes (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

PSG (W)2.49

Nantes (W)0.86

1X2

72% 18% 10%

PSG (W) Draw Nantes (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

PSG (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

Nantes (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDDLLD

Head-to-head

PSG (W) 5–0 Nantes (W) (5 last)

Nantes (W)1-2PSG (W)
PSG (W)5-2Nantes (W)
PSG (W)1-0Nantes (W)
Nantes (W)1-6PSG (W)
Nantes (W)0-1PSG (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSG (W) 1600 · Nantes (W) 1484

	PSG (W)	Draw	Nantes (W)
Our model	72%	18%	10%
Market	72%	18%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSG (W) (rating 1600 vs 1484).
H2H favours PSG (W): 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSG (W)	Nantes (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.5	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.4	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:44 +4’	1.25	5.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PSG (W) 5–0–0 Nantes (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 France Division 1 Women	Nantes (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	PSG (W)
20/09/25 France Division 1 Women	PSG (W)	5-2 HT 3-0	Nantes (W)
07/05/25 France Division 1 Women	PSG (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Nantes (W)
24/01/25 France Cup Women	Nantes (W)	1-6 HT 1-2	PSG (W)
12/10/24 France Division 1 Women	Nantes (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	PSG (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lyon (W)	2	2	0	0	14	2	6
2	PSG (W)	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Marseille (W)	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
4	Strasbourg (W)	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
5	Saint Malo (W)	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
6	Le Havre (W)	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	Paris FC (W)	2	1	0	1	3	7	3
8	Montpellier (W)	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
9	Nantes (W)	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
10	FC Fleury 91 (W)	2	0	1	1	2	8	1
11	Lens (W)	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	Toulouse (W)	2	0	0	2	2	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PSG (W)	Nantes (W)
Strasbourg (W)	2-0 W	3-0 W
Paris FC (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
FC Fleury 91 (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Montpellier (W)	3-2 W	2-2 D
Marseille (W)	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PSG (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSG (W)

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
05/09	Lens (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/05	Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
06/05	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/04	FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
22/04	St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	10	1	W
28/03	Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
22/03	Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women	1-1	3-2	7	4	W
11/03	Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-1	11	5	W
20/02	Lens (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	3-0	2	3	W

Nantes (W)

DWWLWDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
16/05	Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	0-8	1	3	L
06/05	Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women	2-1	3-3	3	0	D
29/04	Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/04	Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
28/03	PSG (W) France Division 1 Women	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
22/03	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	3-0	3-0	2	3	W
11/03	FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
21/02	Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	2-2	3	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSG (W) vs Nantes (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PSG (W) win (72%). Probabilities: PSG (W) 72%, draw 18%, Nantes (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in PSG (W) vs Nantes (W)?

The model expects 3.35 goals (PSG (W) 2.49 · Nantes (W) 0.86), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in PSG (W) vs Nantes (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.