Football · France Division 1 Women · 12/09, 13:30
Prediction: Lyon (W) vs Paris FC (W)
Team pages: Lyon (W) · Paris FC (W)
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.39Total
Lyon (W)2.7
Paris FC (W)0.7
1X2
Lyon (W)
Draw
Paris FC (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Lyon (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Paris FC (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lyon (W)
3–3–0
Paris FC (W)
(6 last)
- Lyon (W)5-0Paris FC (W)
- Paris FC (W)0-0Lyon (W)
- Lyon (W)1-0Paris FC (W)
- Lyon (W)2-2Paris FC (W)
- Paris FC (W)0-0Lyon (W)
- Lyon (W)1-0Paris FC (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lyon (W) 1625 · Paris FC (W) 1555
| Lyon (W) | Draw | Paris FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 82% | 12% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lyon (W) (rating 1625 vs 1555).
- H2H favours Lyon (W): 3-3-0.
- High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lyon (W) | Paris FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.1 / 0.7 | 2.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 0.2 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.6 / 9.2 | 3.1 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lyon (W) 3–3–0 Paris FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/26 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Paris FC (W) |
| 18/01/26 France Division 1 Women | Paris FC (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lyon (W) |
| 01/11/25 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Paris FC (W) |
| 12/04/25 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Paris FC (W) |
| 20/10/24 France Division 1 Women | Paris FC (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lyon (W) |
| 10/01/24 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Paris FC (W) |
Standings · France Division 1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Montpellier (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Paris FC (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | PSG (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Strasbourg (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Marseille (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Saint Malo (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | Le Havre (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Nantes (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Lens (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Toulouse (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 | FC Fleury 91 (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lyon (W) | Paris FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Fleury 91 (W) | 7-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Nantes (W) | 8-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Montpellier (W) | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Dijon (W) | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Strasbourg (W) | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Le Havre (W) | 3-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 0 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lyon (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lyon (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
6-1 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 22/04 | Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 20 | 4 | W |
| 10/03 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 15 | 1 | W |
| 21/02 | Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 6-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
Paris FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-3 | 0-5 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | PSG (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Lens (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-2 | 6-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/03 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 21/03 | St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/03 | Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/02 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lyon (W) vs Paris FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lyon (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Lyon (W) 81%, draw 13%, Paris FC (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Lyon (W) vs Paris FC (W)?
The model expects 3.39 goals (Lyon (W) 2.7 · Paris FC (W) 0.7), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lyon (W) vs Paris FC (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.