Football · France Division 1 Women · 18/09, 19:00

Prediction: Strasbourg (W) vs Paris FC (W)

Team pages: Strasbourg (W) · Paris FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Strasbourg (W)1.02

Paris FC (W)2.09

1X2

16% 23% 61%

Strasbourg (W) Draw Paris FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Strasbourg (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Paris FC (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Strasbourg (W) 0–1–3 Paris FC (W) (4 last)

Paris FC (W)3-0Strasbourg (W)
Strasbourg (W)0-0Paris FC (W)
Paris FC (W)3-1Strasbourg (W)
Strasbourg (W)1-4Paris FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Strasbourg (W) 1427 · Paris FC (W) 1549

	Strasbourg (W)	Draw	Paris FC (W)
Our model	17%	22%	61%
Market	16%	23%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paris FC (W) (rating 1427 vs 1549).
H2H favours Paris FC (W): 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Strasbourg (W)	Paris FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.4	2.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	2.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.50

X3.90

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:16 +25’	5.50	3.90	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +48’	5.35	3.83	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Strasbourg (W) 0–1–3 Paris FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 France Division 1 Women	Paris FC (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Strasbourg (W)
13/12/25 France Division 1 Women	Strasbourg (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Paris FC (W)
22/03/25 France Division 1 Women	Paris FC (W)	3-1 HT 0-1	Strasbourg (W)
16/11/24 France Division 1 Women	Strasbourg (W)	1-4 HT 1-3	Paris FC (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lyon (W)	2	2	0	0	14	2	6
2	PSG (W)	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Marseille (W)	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
4	Strasbourg (W)	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
5	Saint Malo (W)	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
6	Le Havre (W)	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	Paris FC (W)	2	1	0	1	3	7	3
8	Montpellier (W)	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
9	Nantes (W)	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
10	FC Fleury 91 (W)	2	0	1	1	2	8	1
11	Lens (W)	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	Toulouse (W)	2	0	0	2	2	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Strasbourg (W)	Paris FC (W)
PSG (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
FC Fleury 91 (W)	1-3 L	2-1 W
Lyon (W)	2-2 D	1-7 L
Nantes (W)	0-3 L	2-0 W
St Etienne (W)	2-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Paris FC (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Strasbourg (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	PSG (W) France Division 1 Women	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
05/09	Saint Malo (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
06/05	PSG (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
25/04	Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women	1-2	2-3	10	4	L
22/04	FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
28/03	Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women	1-1	2-2	1	1	D
22/03	Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women	0-3	0-3	3	3	L
11/03	Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
21/02	St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
08/02	Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women	1-3	2-4	1	7	L

Paris FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-2	1-7	6	4	L
06/09	Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	2-0	9	5	W
29/05	Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-3	0-5	0	3	L
16/05	PSG (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
06/05	Lens (W) France Division 1 Women	2-2	6-2	9	4	W
25/04	Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
22/04	Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/03	FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
21/03	St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
11/03	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	3-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Strasbourg (W) vs Paris FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Paris FC (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Strasbourg (W) 16%, draw 23%, Paris FC (W) 61%.

How many goals are expected in Strasbourg (W) vs Paris FC (W)?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Strasbourg (W) 1.02 · Paris FC (W) 2.09), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Strasbourg (W) vs Paris FC (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.