Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 18/09, 16:45

Prediction: TJ Valasske Mezirici vs SK Stonava

Team pages: TJ Valasske Mezirici · SK Stonava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

TJ Valasske Mezirici1.9

SK Stonava1.76

1X2

41% 23% 36%

TJ Valasske Mezirici Draw SK Stonava

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

TJ Valasske Mezirici 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLDWL

SK Stonava 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLWLWW

Head-to-head

TJ Valasske Mezirici 0–1–1 SK Stonava (2 last)

SK Stonava2-1TJ Valasske Mezirici
TJ Valasske Mezirici2-2SK Stonava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TJ Valasske Mezirici 1444 · SK Stonava 1542

	TJ Valasske Mezirici	Draw	SK Stonava
Our model	41%	23%	35%
Market	42%	22%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Stonava (rating 1444 vs 1542).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TJ Valasske Mezirici	SK Stonava
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 3.4	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.8	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 5	4 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	6.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:59 +18’	2.15	4.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TJ Valasske Mezirici 0–1–1 SK Stonava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Czechia 4. Liga	SK Stonava	2-1 HT 1-1	TJ Valasske Mezirici
09/08/25 Czechia 4. Liga	TJ Valasske Mezirici	2-2 HT 2-0	SK Stonava

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	5	5	0	0	19	5	15
2	Kravare	5	5	0	0	16	4	15
3	Hlucin	6	5	0	1	14	6	15
4	Opava B	6	4	1	1	14	8	13
5	FC Vratimov	6	4	0	2	11	8	12
6	Jiskra Rymarov	6	3	1	2	14	8	10
7	SK Stonava	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
8	TJ Novy Jicin	6	3	1	2	12	13	10
9	FK Sumperk	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
10	SK Zabreh	5	2	1	2	6	5	7
11	Pusta Polom	5	2	1	2	8	9	7
12	TJ Valasske Mezirici	6	1	2	3	10	15	5
13	Bridlicna	6	1	0	5	7	16	3
14	SSK Bilovec	5	0	1	4	3	12	1
15	Frydek Mistek B	6	0	0	6	6	17	0
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	6	0	0	6	6	23	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TJ Valasske Mezirici	SK Stonava
Frydek Mistek B	4-2 W	2-1 W
Jiskra Rymarov	2-2 D	1-0 W
FC Vratimov	0-2 L	1-3 L
FK Sumperk	1-1 D	3-0 W
Kravare	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SK Stonava (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TJ Valasske Mezirici

WLLLLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Hlucin Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
06/09	Frydek Mistek B Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	4-2	5	5	W
29/08	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	FC Vratimov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	FK Sumperk Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	Kravare Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	4	9	L
12/06	FK Bohumin Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	3-5	6	4	L
05/06	SK Zabreh Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	1-8	–	–	L
30/05	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia 4. Liga	2-3	3-5	–	–	L
23/05	Pusta Polom Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W

SK Stonava

LWWWDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Frydek Mistek B Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC Vratimov Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
23/08	FK Sumperk Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Kravare Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	11	7	L
08/08	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
12/06	MFK Havirov Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	4-2	–	–	W
06/06	FK Petrvald na Morave Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
30/05	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	SSK Bilovec Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TJ Valasske Mezirici vs SK Stonava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TJ Valasske Mezirici win (41%). Probabilities: TJ Valasske Mezirici 41%, draw 23%, SK Stonava 36%.

How many goals are expected in TJ Valasske Mezirici vs SK Stonava?

The model expects 3.66 goals (TJ Valasske Mezirici 1.9 · SK Stonava 1.76), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in TJ Valasske Mezirici vs SK Stonava?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.