Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 20/09, 22:00

Prediction: AD San Carlos vs Cartagines

Team pages: AD San Carlos · Cartagines

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

AD San Carlos1.14

Cartagines1.31

1X2

31% 29% 39%

AD San Carlos Draw Cartagines

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AD San Carlos 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWLWW

Cartagines 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLWWWW

Head-to-head

AD San Carlos 0–1–5 Cartagines (6 last)

Cartagines2-1AD San Carlos
AD San Carlos1-1Cartagines
Cartagines2-1AD San Carlos
AD San Carlos0-2Cartagines
AD San Carlos1-2Cartagines
Cartagines2-1AD San Carlos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD San Carlos 1496 · Cartagines 1610

	AD San Carlos	Draw	Cartagines
Our model	31%	30%	39%
Market	32%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cartagines (rating 1496 vs 1610).
H2H favours Cartagines: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD San Carlos	Cartagines
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.13
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.64 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:19 +22’	2.88	3.20	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:01 +272’	3.12	2.78	2.60
03:01 +19’	3.13▲	2.81▲	2.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AD San Carlos 0–1–5 Cartagines

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Cartagines	2-1 HT 1-1	AD San Carlos
02/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD San Carlos	1-1 HT 1-0	Cartagines
02/11/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Cartagines	2-1 HT 0-1	AD San Carlos
14/09/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD San Carlos	0-2 HT 0-1	Cartagines
17/04/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD San Carlos	1-2 HT 0-1	Cartagines
24/01/25 Costa Rica Primera Division	Cartagines	2-1 HT 1-0	AD San Carlos

Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cartagines	8	6	0	2	18	9	18
2	Deportivo Saprissa	8	6	0	2	18	10	18
3	Sporting San Jose	9	5	2	2	16	8	17
4	Inter San Carlos	8	4	2	2	9	7	14
5	AD San Carlos	8	4	0	4	7	9	12
6	Alajuelense	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
7	Puntarenas	8	2	2	4	7	13	8
8	Municipal Perez Zeledon	9	2	2	5	7	14	8
9	Herediano	8	2	1	5	8	12	7
10	Escorpiones de Belen FC	8	1	1	6	6	14	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD San Carlos	Cartagines
Municipal Perez Zeledon	2-0 W	0-1 L
Sporting San Jose	1-0 W	2-1 W
Puntarenas	1-2 L	3-1 W
Alajuelense	1-0 W	3-1 W
Herediano	1-0 W	1-0 W
Inter San Carlos	0-2 L	3-1 W
Deportivo Saprissa	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cartagines (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD San Carlos

LLDLLWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	2-0	2-0	6	8	W
07/09	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
31/08	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
24/08	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
09/08	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
03/08	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
25/04	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
22/04	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
19/04	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Cartagines

LDWLWLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
07/09	Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	3-1	5	8	W
30/08	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/08	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	4-1	9	8	W
16/08	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
08/08	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	2-1	4	9	W
04/08	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
26/07	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
10/05	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
03/05	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	10	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD San Carlos vs Cartagines?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cartagines win (39%). Probabilities: AD San Carlos 31%, draw 29%, Cartagines 39%.

How many goals are expected in AD San Carlos vs Cartagines?

The model expects 2.45 goals (AD San Carlos 1.14 · Cartagines 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AD San Carlos vs Cartagines?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.