Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 13/09, 22:00
Prediction: Cartagines vs Alajuelense
Team pages: Cartagines · Alajuelense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Cartagines1.44
Alajuelense1.17
1X2
Cartagines
Draw
Alajuelense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Cartagines
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Alajuelense
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cartagines
1–1–4
Alajuelense
(6 last)
- Alajuelense2-0Cartagines
- Cartagines1-0Alajuelense
- Cartagines0-2Alajuelense
- Cartagines1-1Alajuelense
- Alajuelense1-0Cartagines
- Alajuelense2-1Cartagines
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cartagines 1573 · Alajuelense 1540
| Cartagines | Draw | Alajuelense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Alajuelense: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cartagines | Alajuelense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6 | 2.7 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cartagines 1–1–4 Alajuelense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Cartagines |
| 22/01/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Cartagines | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alajuelense |
| 30/11/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Cartagines | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Alajuelense |
| 16/03/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Cartagines | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Alajuelense |
| 03/02/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cartagines |
| 23/09/24 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Cartagines |
Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Cartagines | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Inter San Carlos | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sporting San Jose | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Alajuelense | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | AD San Carlos | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Municipal Perez Zeledon | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 8 |
| 8 | Puntarenas | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 7 |
| 9 | Escorpiones de Belen FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| 9 | Herediano | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cartagines | Alajuelense |
|---|---|---|
| Puntarenas | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Herediano | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Escorpiones de Belen FC | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo Saprissa | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Sporting San Jose | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Municipal Perez Zeledon | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Cartagines (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cartagines
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 04/08 | Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 27/04 | Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
Alajuelense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 24/08 | AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/08 | Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 27/04 | Municipal Liberia Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
3-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/04 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cartagines vs Alajuelense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cartagines win (42%). Probabilities: Cartagines 42%, draw 29%, Alajuelense 29%.
How many goals are expected in Cartagines vs Alajuelense?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Cartagines 1.44 · Alajuelense 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cartagines vs Alajuelense?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.