Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 23/09, 19:15

Prediction: Hapoel Herzliya vs Tzeirey Tira

Team pages: Hapoel Herzliya · Tzeirey Tira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Hapoel Herzliya1.39

Tzeirey Tira1.03

1X2

45% 28% 27%

Hapoel Herzliya Draw Tzeirey Tira

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Herzliya 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDDLWWD

Tzeirey Tira 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Hapoel Herzliya 1–1–2 Tzeirey Tira (4 last)

Tzeirey Tira1-0Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Herzliya2-2Tzeirey Tira
Tzeirey Tira2-1Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Herzliya3-0Tzeirey Tira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Herzliya 1504 · Tzeirey Tira 1445

	Hapoel Herzliya	Draw	Tzeirey Tira
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Herzliya (rating 1504 vs 1445).
H2H favours Tzeirey Tira: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Herzliya	Tzeirey Tira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.83 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +3’	2.00	3.30	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +17’	1.84	3.11	3.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Herzliya 1–1–2 Tzeirey Tira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Israel Liga Alef South	Tzeirey Tira	1-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Herzliya
19/09/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Herzliya	2-2 HT 1-1	Tzeirey Tira
10/01/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Tzeirey Tira	2-1 HT 1-1	Hapoel Herzliya
13/09/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Herzliya	3-0	Tzeirey Tira

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Dimona	3	3	0	0	4	0	9
2	Shimshon Tel Aviv	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
3	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
4	MS Jerusalem	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
5	Hapoel Herzliya	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
6	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
7	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
8	Maccabi Yavne	3	1	1	1	3	1	4
9	Hapoel Hadera	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
11	Kfar Saba 1928	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
12	Hapoel Marmorek	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
13	Hapoel Azor	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
14	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
15	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
16	Ironi Beit Shemesh	3	0	1	2	3	8	1
17	AS Nordia Jerusalem	3	0	0	3	2	8	0
18	Tzeirey Tira	3	0	0	3	1	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Herzliya	Tzeirey Tira
AS Nordia Jerusalem	3-1 W	5-2 W
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	2-1 W	3-0 W
FC Beitar Yavne	0-1 L	0-1 L
Hapoel Marmorek	1-1 D	0-0 D
Hapoel Azor	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tzeirey Tira (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Herzliya

WDLLDDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
09/09	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	3-1	7	5	W
03/09	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
27/02	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	0	8	L
20/02	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
12/02	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
06/02	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-2	1-5	3	5	L
31/01	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
23/01	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
16/01	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	2-0	3-1	3	7	W

Tzeirey Tira

DLLWWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
09/09	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-2	0-2	4	7	L
03/09	Maccabi Ironi Sderot Israel Liga Alef South	1-3	1-4	1	6	L
19/02	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
13/02	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	3-1	5-2	6	7	W
06/02	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
31/01	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/01	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
16/01	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
10/01	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Herzliya vs Tzeirey Tira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Herzliya win (45%). Probabilities: Hapoel Herzliya 45%, draw 28%, Tzeirey Tira 27%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Herzliya vs Tzeirey Tira?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Hapoel Herzliya 1.39 · Tzeirey Tira 1.03), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Herzliya vs Tzeirey Tira?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.