Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 24/09, 18:00
Prediction: MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Yavne
Team pages: MS Jerusalem · Maccabi Yavne
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.08Total
MS Jerusalem1.68
Maccabi Yavne1.41
1X2
MS Jerusalem
Draw
Maccabi Yavne
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
MS Jerusalem
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Maccabi Yavne
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
MS Jerusalem
2–1–0
Maccabi Yavne
(3 last)
- MS Jerusalem2-0Maccabi Yavne
- MS Jerusalem1-0Maccabi Yavne
- Maccabi Yavne3-3MS Jerusalem
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MS Jerusalem 1566 · Maccabi Yavne 1532
| MS Jerusalem | Draw | Maccabi Yavne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours MS Jerusalem: 2-1-0.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MS Jerusalem | Maccabi Yavne | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.3 | 2.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6.6 | 3.1 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MS Jerusalem 2–1–0 Maccabi Yavne
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/25 Israel Liga Alef South | MS Jerusalem | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Maccabi Yavne |
| 21/03/25 Israel Liga Alef South | MS Jerusalem | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Maccabi Yavne |
| 28/11/24 Israel Liga Alef South | Maccabi Yavne | 3-3 HT 1-1 | MS Jerusalem |
Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Club Dimona | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | MS Jerusalem | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Hapoel Herzliya | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Maccabi Ironi Sderot | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Maccabi Yavne | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Hapoel Hadera | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Hapoel Holon Yaniv | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Hapoel Marmorek | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Azor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 15 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Ironi Beit Shemesh | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | AS Nordia Jerusalem | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 | Tzeirey Tira | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | MS Jerusalem | Maccabi Yavne |
|---|---|---|
| AS Nordia Jerusalem | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Maccabi Ironi Ashdod | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| Kfar Saba 1928 | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Sport Club Dimona | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Hapoel Herzliya | 5-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: MS Jerusalem (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MS Jerusalem
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 09/09 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 04/09 | Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 27/02 | Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 20/02 | AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/02 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/02 | Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 30/01 | Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/01 | FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/01 | Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
Maccabi Yavne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 09/09 | Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 03/09 | Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/02 | Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 20/02 | Hapoel Holon Yaniv Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 12/02 | Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 06/02 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 30/01 | Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South |
3-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 23/01 | AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 16/01 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Yavne?
According to our model, the most likely result is a MS Jerusalem win (43%). Probabilities: MS Jerusalem 43%, draw 26%, Maccabi Yavne 31%.
How many goals are expected in MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Yavne?
The model expects 3.08 goals (MS Jerusalem 1.68 · Maccabi Yavne 1.41), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Yavne?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.