Football · Nigeria Premier League · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: Nasarawa United vs Rivers United

Team pages: Nasarawa United · Rivers United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Nasarawa United1.63

Rivers United1.02

1X2

50% 28% 22%

Nasarawa United Draw Rivers United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Nasarawa United 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLWL

Rivers United 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Nasarawa United 2–2–2 Rivers United (6 last)

Rivers United2-2Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United4-1Rivers United
Rivers United1-0Nasarawa United
Rivers United2-1Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United1-1Rivers United
Nasarawa United2-1Rivers United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nasarawa United 1476 · Rivers United 1564

	Nasarawa United	Draw	Rivers United
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rivers United (rating 1476 vs 1564).
High corners: 14 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nasarawa United	Rivers United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/71/14%	57/14/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	2.8 / 9.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.20

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80
X	3.00 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +7’	1.83	3.00	4.20
21:17 +2’	1.80▼	3.20▲	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nasarawa United 2–2–2 Rivers United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Nigeria Cup	Rivers United	2-2 HT 0-1	Nasarawa United
23/03/26 Nigeria Premier League	Nasarawa United	4-1 HT 3-1	Rivers United
02/11/25 Nigeria Premier League	Rivers United	1-0 HT 1-0	Nasarawa United
25/05/25 Nigeria Premier League	Rivers United	2-1 HT 1-1	Nasarawa United
22/12/24 Nigeria Premier League	Nasarawa United	1-1 HT 1-0	Rivers United
26/06/22 Nigeria Premier League	Nasarawa United	2-1 HT 1-0	Rivers United

Standings · Nigeria Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Doma United	3	3	0	0	5	0	9
2	Barau FC	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
3	Rivers United	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Bendel Insurance	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
5	Ikorodu City FC	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
5	Kwara United	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
7	Kano Pillars	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
8	Enugu Rangers	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
9	Niger Tornadoes	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
10	Plateau United	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
11	Sporting Lagos	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
12	Shooting Stars	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
13	Ranchers Bees	3	1	0	2	6	6	3
14	Nasarawa United	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
15	Kun Khalifat FC	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
16	Abia Warriors	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
17	Katsina Utd	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
18	Enyimba	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
18	Warri Wolves FC	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
20	Inter Lagos	3	0	0	3	1	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nasarawa United	Rivers United
Plateau United	1-0 W	2-0 W
Warri Wolves FC	3-0 W	2-0 W
Kun Khalifat FC	0-1 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Rivers United (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nasarawa United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Enugu Rangers Nigeria Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
06/09	Bendel Insurance Nigeria Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
30/08	Barau FC Nigeria Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
24/05	Barau FC Nigeria Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
10/05	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/05	Shooting Stars Nigeria Premier League	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
19/04	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
14/04	El Kanemi Warriors Nigeria Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/04	Kun Khalifat FC Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/03	Kwara United Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Rivers United

LWLWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
30/08	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
24/05	Katsina Utd Nigeria Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
10/05	Wikki Tourists Nigeria Premier League	1-1	3-2	16	3	W
03/05	Abia Warriors Nigeria Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
19/04	Kano Pillars Nigeria Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/04	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/04	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
29/03	Kun Khalifat FC Nigeria Premier League	3-2	4-2	–	–	W
23/03	Nasarawa United Nigeria Premier League	1-3	1-4	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nasarawa United vs Rivers United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nasarawa United win (50%). Probabilities: Nasarawa United 50%, draw 28%, Rivers United 22%.

How many goals are expected in Nasarawa United vs Rivers United?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Nasarawa United 1.63 · Rivers United 1.02), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nasarawa United vs Rivers United?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.