Football · Nigeria Premier League · 27/09, 17:00

Prediction: Abia Warriors vs Bendel Insurance

Team pages: Abia Warriors · Bendel Insurance

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Abia Warriors1.46

Bendel Insurance0.61

1X2

57% 28% 15%

Abia Warriors Draw Bendel Insurance

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Abia Warriors 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDLDWL

Bendel Insurance 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWLWLW

Head-to-head

Abia Warriors 2–2–2 Bendel Insurance (6 last)

Bendel Insurance1-0Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors0-0Bendel Insurance
Abia Warriors1-0Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance0-1Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors0-0Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance1-0Abia Warriors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Abia Warriors 1456 · Bendel Insurance 1538

	Abia Warriors	Draw	Bendel Insurance
Our model	57%	29%	14%
Market	57%	28%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bendel Insurance (rating 1456 vs 1538).
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Abia Warriors	Bendel Insurance
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.5	1 / 1.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.20

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +5’	1.57	3.20	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Abia Warriors 2–2–2 Bendel Insurance

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Nigeria Premier League	Bendel Insurance	1-0	Abia Warriors
23/11/25 Nigeria Premier League	Abia Warriors	0-0 HT 0-0	Bendel Insurance
16/03/25 Nigeria Premier League	Abia Warriors	1-0 HT 1-0	Bendel Insurance
26/10/24 Nigeria Premier League	Bendel Insurance	0-1 HT 0-1	Abia Warriors
09/06/24 Nigeria Premier League	Abia Warriors	0-0	Bendel Insurance
21/12/23 Nigeria Premier League	Bendel Insurance	1-0	Abia Warriors

Standings · Nigeria Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barau FC	5	3	2	0	8	2	11
2	Rivers United	4	3	1	0	10	1	10
3	Enugu Rangers	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
4	Doma United	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Bendel Insurance	5	3	0	2	9	7	9
6	Kano Pillars	4	2	2	0	10	6	8
7	Plateau United	5	2	2	1	7	6	8
8	Kwara United	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
9	Shooting Stars	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
10	Ranchers Bees	5	2	0	3	8	8	6
11	Sporting Lagos	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
12	Ikorodu City FC	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
13	Niger Tornadoes	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
14	Abia Warriors	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
15	Warri Wolves FC	4	1	1	2	2	4	4
16	Nasarawa United	5	1	1	3	5	8	4
17	Inter Lagos	5	1	1	3	3	7	4
18	Katsina Utd	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
19	Kun Khalifat FC	5	0	2	3	4	13	2
20	Enyimba	4	0	0	4	3	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Abia Warriors	Bendel Insurance
Ikorodu City FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Ranchers Bees	0-4 L	1-2 L
Kun Khalifat FC	0-0 D	4-2 W
Warri Wolves FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bendel Insurance (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Abia Warriors

LWLLLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Barau FC Nigeria Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
20/09	Sporting Lagos Nigeria Premier League	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
13/09	Ikorodu City FC Nigeria Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
07/09	Ranchers Bees Nigeria Premier League	–	0-4	–	–	L
30/08	Kun Khalifat FC Nigeria Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/05	Kun Khalifat FC Nigeria Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	Rivers United Nigeria Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
19/04	Ikorodu City FC Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	Bendel Insurance Nigeria Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Bendel Insurance

WWWLDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Ikorodu City FC Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	Ranchers Bees Nigeria Premier League	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
13/09	Kun Khalifat FC Nigeria Premier League	–	4-2	–	–	W
06/09	Nasarawa United Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
30/08	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	Remo Stars Nigeria Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Enugu Rangers Nigeria Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
03/05	Katsina Utd Nigeria Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	Wikki Tourists Nigeria Premier League	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
11/04	Abia Warriors Nigeria Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Abia Warriors vs Bendel Insurance?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Abia Warriors win (57%). Probabilities: Abia Warriors 57%, draw 28%, Bendel Insurance 15%.

How many goals are expected in Abia Warriors vs Bendel Insurance?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Abia Warriors 1.46 · Bendel Insurance 0.61), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Abia Warriors vs Bendel Insurance?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.