Football · Nigeria Premier League · 27/09, 17:00

Prediction: Kun Khalifat FC vs Kwara United

Team pages: Kun Khalifat FC · Kwara United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Kun Khalifat FC1.49

Kwara United0.91

1X2

49% 29% 22%

Kun Khalifat FC Draw Kwara United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Kun Khalifat FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDDLLL

Kwara United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDLWLW

Head-to-head

Kun Khalifat FC 1–1 Kwara United (2 last)

Kun Khalifat FC1-0Kwara United
Kwara United2-0Kun Khalifat FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kun Khalifat FC 1510 · Kwara United 1487

	Kun Khalifat FC	Draw	Kwara United
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	49%	30%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kun Khalifat FC	Kwara United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	– / 5	0.5 / 1.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +5’	1.83	3.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kun Khalifat FC 1–0–1 Kwara United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/01/26 Nigeria Premier League	Kun Khalifat FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Kwara United
07/09/25 Nigeria Premier League	Kwara United	2-0 HT 1-0	Kun Khalifat FC

Standings · Nigeria Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barau FC	5	3	2	0	8	2	11
2	Rivers United	4	3	1	0	10	1	10
3	Enugu Rangers	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
4	Doma United	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Bendel Insurance	5	3	0	2	9	7	9
6	Kano Pillars	4	2	2	0	10	6	8
7	Plateau United	5	2	2	1	7	6	8
8	Kwara United	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
9	Shooting Stars	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
10	Ranchers Bees	5	2	0	3	8	8	6
11	Sporting Lagos	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
12	Ikorodu City FC	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
13	Niger Tornadoes	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
14	Abia Warriors	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
15	Warri Wolves FC	4	1	1	2	2	4	4
16	Nasarawa United	5	1	1	3	5	8	4
17	Inter Lagos	5	1	1	3	3	7	4
18	Katsina Utd	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
19	Kun Khalifat FC	5	0	2	3	4	13	2
20	Enyimba	4	0	0	4	3	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kun Khalifat FC	Kwara United
Barau FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Kano Pillars	2-1 W	2-2 D
Plateau United	1-1 D	0-1 L
Warri Wolves FC	3-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kun Khalifat FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kun Khalifat FC

WDWWWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Rivers United Nigeria Premier League	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
20/09	Enugu Rangers Nigeria Premier League	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
13/09	Bendel Insurance Nigeria Premier League	–	2-4	–	–	L
06/09	Barau FC Nigeria Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
30/08	Abia Warriors Nigeria Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Wikki Tourists Nigeria Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Abia Warriors Nigeria Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Kano Pillars Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
12/04	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W

Kwara United

DWDWLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Nasarawa United Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Katsina Utd Nigeria Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
06/09	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
30/08	Kano Pillars Nigeria Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
24/05	Bayelsa United Nigeria Premier League	–	0-4	–	–	L
10/05	Enyimba Nigeria Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Niger Tornadoes Nigeria Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
19/04	Barau FC Nigeria Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
12/04	Shooting Stars Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kun Khalifat FC vs Kwara United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kun Khalifat FC win (49%). Probabilities: Kun Khalifat FC 49%, draw 29%, Kwara United 22%.

How many goals are expected in Kun Khalifat FC vs Kwara United?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Kun Khalifat FC 1.49 · Kwara United 0.91), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Kun Khalifat FC vs Kwara United?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.