Football · Nigeria Premier League · 27/09, 17:00

Prediction: Nasarawa United vs Niger Tornadoes

Team pages: Nasarawa United · Niger Tornadoes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Nasarawa United1.63

Niger Tornadoes0.68

1X2

59% 26% 14%

Nasarawa United Draw Niger Tornadoes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Nasarawa United 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWLDL

Niger Tornadoes 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDWWLDLD

Head-to-head

Nasarawa United 3–1–2 Niger Tornadoes (6 last)

Nasarawa United2-1Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes1-0Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United2-0Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes0-0Nasarawa United
Niger Tornadoes1-0Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United1-0Niger Tornadoes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nasarawa United 1488 · Niger Tornadoes 1474

	Nasarawa United	Draw	Niger Tornadoes
Our model	59%	27%	14%
Market	59%	26%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nasarawa United: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nasarawa United	Niger Tornadoes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	2.6 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.40

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +6’	1.50	3.40	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nasarawa United 3–1–2 Niger Tornadoes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Nigeria Premier League	Nasarawa United	2-1 HT 2-0	Niger Tornadoes
27/08/25 Nigeria Premier League	Niger Tornadoes	1-0 HT 1-0	Nasarawa United
02/02/25 Nigeria Premier League	Nasarawa United	2-0 HT 1-0	Niger Tornadoes
15/09/24 Nigeria Premier League	Niger Tornadoes	0-0 HT 0-0	Nasarawa United
18/06/22 Nigeria Premier League	Niger Tornadoes	1-0 HT 0-0	Nasarawa United
21/02/22 Nigeria Premier League	Nasarawa United	1-0 HT 1-0	Niger Tornadoes

Standings · Nigeria Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barau FC	5	3	2	0	8	2	11
2	Rivers United	4	3	1	0	10	1	10
3	Enugu Rangers	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
4	Doma United	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Bendel Insurance	5	3	0	2	9	7	9
6	Kano Pillars	4	2	2	0	10	6	8
7	Plateau United	5	2	2	1	7	6	8
8	Kwara United	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
9	Shooting Stars	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
10	Ranchers Bees	5	2	0	3	8	8	6
11	Sporting Lagos	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
12	Ikorodu City FC	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
13	Niger Tornadoes	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
14	Abia Warriors	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
15	Warri Wolves FC	4	1	1	2	2	4	4
16	Nasarawa United	5	1	1	3	5	8	4
17	Inter Lagos	5	1	1	3	3	7	4
18	Katsina Utd	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
19	Kun Khalifat FC	5	0	2	3	4	13	2
20	Enyimba	4	0	0	4	3	8	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nasarawa United	Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United	1-2 L	2-2 D
Enugu Rangers	1-2 L	0-0 D
Plateau United	1-0 W	1-1 D
Shooting Stars	2-3 L	1-0 W
Warri Wolves FC	3-0 W	0-0 D
El Kanemi Warriors	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Niger Tornadoes (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nasarawa United

LWLWLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Kwara United Nigeria Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	Rivers United Nigeria Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/09	Enugu Rangers Nigeria Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
06/09	Bendel Insurance Nigeria Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
30/08	Barau FC Nigeria Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
24/05	Barau FC Nigeria Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
10/05	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/05	Shooting Stars Nigeria Premier League	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
19/04	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
14/04	El Kanemi Warriors Nigeria Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Niger Tornadoes

DLDDWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
19/09	Katsina Utd Nigeria Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Plateau United Nigeria Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
06/09	Kano Pillars Nigeria Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
30/08	Enyimba Nigeria Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
24/05	Shooting Stars Nigeria Premier League	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
10/05	El Kanemi Warriors Nigeria Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	Kwara United Nigeria Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
19/04	Remo Stars Nigeria Premier League	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
12/04	Enugu Rangers Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nasarawa United vs Niger Tornadoes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nasarawa United win (59%). Probabilities: Nasarawa United 59%, draw 26%, Niger Tornadoes 14%.

How many goals are expected in Nasarawa United vs Niger Tornadoes?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Nasarawa United 1.63 · Niger Tornadoes 0.68), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Nasarawa United vs Niger Tornadoes?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.