Football · Panama Liga Prom · 11/09, 16:00

Prediction: Academia Costa Del Este vs Chorrillo

Team pages: Academia Costa Del Este · Chorrillo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Academia Costa Del Este2.09

Chorrillo1.19

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Academia Costa Del Este Draw Chorrillo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Costa Del Este 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWWDWLWW

Chorrillo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Academia Costa Del Este 5–0 Chorrillo (5 last)

Chorrillo0-7Academia Costa Del Este
Academia Costa Del Este3-1Chorrillo
Chorrillo1-2Academia Costa Del Este
Academia Costa Del Este4-0Chorrillo
Chorrillo1-3Academia Costa Del Este

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Costa Del Este 1591 · Chorrillo 1443

	Academia Costa Del Este	Draw	Chorrillo
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Academia Costa Del Este (rating 1591 vs 1443).
H2H favours Academia Costa Del Este: 5-0-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Costa Del Este	Chorrillo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/63/13%	13/50/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:44 +11’	1.57	3.80	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Costa Del Este 5–0–0 Chorrillo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	0-7 HT 0-2	Academia Costa Del Este
13/11/25 Panama Liga Prom	Academia Costa Del Este	3-1 HT 0-0	Chorrillo
06/11/25 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	1-2 HT 0-2	Academia Costa Del Este
27/09/25 Panama Liga Prom	Academia Costa Del Este	4-0 HT 2-0	Chorrillo
30/03/25 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	1-3 HT 0-1	Academia Costa Del Este

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tauro FC Reserves	7	4	2	1	13	6	14
2	Chorrillo	7	3	3	1	10	4	12
3	Potros Del Este	7	3	1	3	7	7	10
4	Plaza Amador Reserves	7	3	0	4	13	12	9
5	Alianza FC Reserves	7	1	2	4	6	13	5
6	San Martin FC	7	1	0	6	10	15	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Costa Del Este	Chorrillo
San Martin FC	3-2 W	4-1 W
Plaza Amador Reserves	3-0 W	3-0 W
Sporting San Miguelito Reserves	1-3 L	0-1 L
CD Arabe Unido Reserves	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chorrillo (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Academia Costa Del Este

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	3-2	–	–	W
28/08	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
21/08	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
16/08	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
09/08	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
30/07	UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
24/07	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
09/05	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	1-1	11	9	D
05/05	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
01/05	UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	1-2	–	–	L

Chorrillo

LLLDWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/08	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
20/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
12/08	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
06/08	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
30/07	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	4-1	–	–	W
24/07	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
30/04	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
23/04	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-4	0-4	4	6	L
16/04	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-2	0-4	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Costa Del Este vs Chorrillo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Academia Costa Del Este win (57%). Probabilities: Academia Costa Del Este 57%, draw 23%, Chorrillo 20%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Costa Del Este vs Chorrillo?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Academia Costa Del Este 2.09 · Chorrillo 1.19), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Costa Del Este vs Chorrillo?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.