Football · Guatemala Primera Division · 04/10, 19:00

Prediction: CD Achuapa vs AFF Guatemala

Team pages: CD Achuapa · AFF Guatemala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

CD Achuapa1.58

AFF Guatemala0.74

1X2

57% 26% 17%

CD Achuapa Draw AFF Guatemala

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Achuapa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLLLD

AFF Guatemala 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

CD Achuapa 1–0 AFF Guatemala (1 last)

AFF Guatemala1-2CD Achuapa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Achuapa 1487 · AFF Guatemala 1435

	CD Achuapa	Draw	AFF Guatemala
Our model	56%	27%	16%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Achuapa (rating 1487 vs 1435).
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Achuapa	AFF Guatemala
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	3.6 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.2	5.9 / 1.3

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:47 +19’	1.55	3.70	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Achuapa 1–0–0 AFF Guatemala

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Guatemala Primera Division	AFF Guatemala	1-2 HT 0-2	CD Achuapa

Standings · Guatemala Primera Division · Primera Division 26/27, Apertura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mictlán	12	8	3	1	25	11	27
2	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	13	9	0	4	21	18	27
3	CS Deportivo Sacachispas	13	8	2	3	25	10	26
4	San Benito FC	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
5	CSD Sayaxche	13	5	4	4	15	11	19
6	Deportivo Fraijanes	13	5	2	6	23	21	17
7	CSD Chiquimulilla	13	5	1	7	14	14	16
8	CD Achuapa	13	4	2	7	8	16	14
9	AFF Guatemala	13	4	0	9	8	23	12
10	Champs Academy	13	1	2	10	6	26	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Achuapa	AFF Guatemala
CSD Sayaxche	1-1 D	2-1 W
Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	0-1 L	0-2 L
Mictlán	1-4 L	0-3 L
Deportivo Fraijanes	0-3 L	1-2 L
Champs Academy	0-0 D	0-2 L
CSD Chiquimulilla	1-0 W	1-0 W
CS Deportivo Sacachispas	0-1 L	0-3 L
San Benito FC	1-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: CD Achuapa (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Achuapa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Mictlán Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	1-4	5	8	L
13/09	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
05/09	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
30/08	CSD Chiquimulilla Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
24/08	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
15/08	AFF Guatemala Guatemala Primera Division	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
12/08	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	2-1	10	5	W

AFF Guatemala

WLLWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	1-2	10	7	L
27/09	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-2	5	12	L
19/09	CSD Chiquimulilla Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-3	1	4	L
06/09	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
29/08	Mictlán Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	0-3	7	11	L
22/08	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	2-1	15	4	W
20/08	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
15/08	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	1-2	9	4	L
12/08	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	2-1	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Achuapa vs AFF Guatemala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Achuapa win (57%). Probabilities: CD Achuapa 57%, draw 26%, AFF Guatemala 17%.

How many goals are expected in CD Achuapa vs AFF Guatemala?

The model expects 2.32 goals (CD Achuapa 1.58 · AFF Guatemala 0.74), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Achuapa vs AFF Guatemala?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.