Football · Guatemala Primera Division · 04/10, 19:00

Prediction: Mictlán vs CSD Chiquimulilla

Team pages: Mictlán · CSD Chiquimulilla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Mictlán2.05

CSD Chiquimulilla1.05

1X2

59% 23% 17%

Mictlán Draw CSD Chiquimulilla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Mictlán 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWDL

CSD Chiquimulilla 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Mictlán 4–2 CSD Chiquimulilla (6 last)

CSD Chiquimulilla1-2Mictlán
Mictlán3-0CSD Chiquimulilla
CSD Chiquimulilla3-2Mictlán
CSD Chiquimulilla2-1Mictlán
Mictlán3-1CSD Chiquimulilla
Mictlán3-2CSD Chiquimulilla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mictlán 1575 · CSD Chiquimulilla 1443

	Mictlán	Draw	CSD Chiquimulilla
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	24%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mictlán (rating 1575 vs 1443).
H2H favours Mictlán: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 13 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mictlán	CSD Chiquimulilla
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/22/11%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	3.8 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0.6	6.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.75

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +11’	1.53	3.75	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mictlán 4–0–2 CSD Chiquimulilla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Guatemala Primera Division	CSD Chiquimulilla	1-2 HT 0-0	Mictlán
11/05/25 Guatemala Primera Division	Mictlán	3-0 HT 1-0	CSD Chiquimulilla
04/05/25 Guatemala Primera Division	CSD Chiquimulilla	3-2 HT 3-2	Mictlán
13/03/25 Guatemala Primera Division	CSD Chiquimulilla	2-1 HT 1-0	Mictlán
26/01/25 Guatemala Primera Division	Mictlán	3-1 HT 1-1	CSD Chiquimulilla
06/10/24 Guatemala Primera Division	Mictlán	3-2 HT 0-0	CSD Chiquimulilla

Standings · Guatemala Primera Division · Primera Division 26/27, Apertura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mictlán	12	8	3	1	25	11	27
2	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	13	9	0	4	21	18	27
3	CS Deportivo Sacachispas	13	8	2	3	25	10	26
4	San Benito FC	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
5	CSD Sayaxche	13	5	4	4	15	11	19
6	Deportivo Fraijanes	13	5	2	6	23	21	17
7	CSD Chiquimulilla	13	5	1	7	14	14	16
8	CD Achuapa	13	4	2	7	8	16	14
9	AFF Guatemala	13	4	0	9	8	23	12
10	Champs Academy	13	1	2	10	6	26	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mictlán	CSD Chiquimulilla
Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	3-4 L	1-2 L
CS Deportivo Sacachispas	1-1 D	0-2 L
CD Achuapa	4-1 W	0-1 L
San Benito FC	2-2 D	1-3 L
Deportivo Fraijanes	4-2 W	3-1 W
AFF Guatemala	3-0 W	0-1 L
Champs Academy	1-0 W	2-0 W
CSD Sayaxche	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Mictlán (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mictlán

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	1-3	3-4	3	12	L
27/09	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
20/09	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	2-0	4-1	1	8	W
13/09	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	2-2	13	5	D
06/09	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	1-1	4-2	5	6	W
29/08	AFF Guatemala Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	3-0	5	11	W
23/08	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/08	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
16/08	CSD Chiquimulilla Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
13/08	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	2-0	5	9	W

CSD Chiquimulilla

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
27/09	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
19/09	AFF Guatemala Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	1-1	1-2	7	12	L
30/08	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
23/08	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	3-1	7	5	W
20/08	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	2-0	12	8	W
16/08	Mictlán Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
13/08	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	3-0	3-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mictlán vs CSD Chiquimulilla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mictlán win (59%). Probabilities: Mictlán 59%, draw 23%, CSD Chiquimulilla 17%.

How many goals are expected in Mictlán vs CSD Chiquimulilla?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Mictlán 2.05 · CSD Chiquimulilla 1.05), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mictlán vs CSD Chiquimulilla?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.